Equities At Record Highs Despite A Slowing Economy

Market Overview - The equity market is currently disregarding the government shutdown, potentially viewing it as a positive factor, while also signaling a slowdown in the economy [1][13] - Major indexes closed at record highs for the week ending October 24th, with significant gains observed in October [1][13] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates only 18% of the economy is growing, a decline from 43% in August and 100% at the end of the previous year [5][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in September, slightly above the consensus estimate, bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.0% [6][15] - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2%, also resulting in a 3.0% rise over the past year [6][15] Housing Market - Existing home sales increased by 4.1% in September compared to the previous year, but the annual rate remains significantly below pre-COVID levels [11][12] - The current level of existing home sales is nearly 40% lower than the cycle peak, approaching the worst levels seen during the Great Recession [12][14] - Median home prices have stagnated since Spring 2024, with expectations of home price deflation in the coming quarters due to rising inventory [12][14] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending rose by 2.7% from April to August, despite a 1.2% decline in personal income during the same period, indicating reliance on savings drawdown [9][16] - Rising delinquencies in credit card and auto loans are early indicators of consumer distress, with mortgage delinquencies now exceeding levels seen during the COVID era [10][16] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a potential 25-basis point reduction anticipated at the upcoming meeting [8] - The economic outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued weakness in economic data influencing future monetary policy [8][16]