沪指十年再破4000点，大数据揭秘A股到底贵不贵

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a significant milestone, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark for the first time since August 2015, indicating a potential bullish trend in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index peaked at 4010.73 points but closed slightly down at 3988.22 points, marking a 0.22% decline. The total trading volume for the day was 2.16 trillion yuan, maintaining over 1 trillion yuan in daily trading for 127 consecutive days [1][4]. - Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 18.99%, while the Shenzhen Component Index has risen by 28.95%. The STAR 50 and ChiNext Index have seen even higher gains of 48.82% and 50.8%, respectively [1]. Valuation Potential - Despite the index levels returning to those of a decade ago, the long-term valuation of major indices still shows potential for growth. As of October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 17 times, which is at the 99.96 percentile of the past decade, indicating a relatively low valuation historically [2][3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index has a PE of 30.96 times, positioned at the 83rd percentile over the last ten years, while the price-to-book ratio (PB-LF) is at 49.88 percentile, suggesting limited valuation pressure [2][3]. Trading Activity - The market's trading activity remains robust, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan this year, a record high. The A-share market has seen trading volumes above 1 trillion yuan for 127 consecutive days, with a notable period from August 13 to October 15 where trading exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 40 consecutive days [4][5]. Leverage Control - The proportion of leveraged funds remains manageable, with the financing balance accounting for 2.51% of the circulating market value, significantly lower than the historical peak of 4.72% in July 2015. The average maintenance guarantee ratio is 283.29%, well above the 140% warning line, indicating a safe margin for existing leverage [6][7]. Sector Performance - The current market rally is characterized by a strong emphasis on technology sectors. From September 26, 2024, to October 28, 2025, the electronic and communication sectors have seen substantial gains of 191.89% and 124.61%, respectively, contrasting with the construction sector's performance during the previous rally [7][8]. - The electronic industry currently has a PE of 66.88 times, while the computer industry stands at 56.62 times, reflecting significant investor interest in technology stocks. However, the electronic sector's PE is at the 97.03 percentile historically, indicating high valuation levels [7][8][9]. Future Outlook - The chief economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund suggests that the current market conditions indicate the potential for continued upward movement, with the 4000-point mark possibly serving as a new starting point for the next phase of the market [7].