谁是下一任美联储主席？“再提”贝森特，特朗普“开玩笑”还是“埋伏笔”

Core Viewpoint - Speculation around the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified following President Trump's recent comments, particularly regarding current Treasury Secretary Mnuchin as a potential candidate [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Considerations - Trump praised Mnuchin's ability to "calm" financial markets, contrasting it with his own sometimes disruptive style [1]. - Despite Mnuchin's public disinterest in the position, his name continues to circulate, indicating ongoing speculation about the final choice [1][2]. - The selection process for Powell's successor is in a critical phase, with a shortlist of five candidates emerging, including Fed governors Waller and Bowman, Trump's economic advisor Hassett, BlackRock strategist Rick Rieder, and former Fed governor Warsh [3]. Group 2: Timeline and Implications - Trump aims to finalize the selection of the next Fed Chair by the end of the year, which is an accelerated timeline compared to usual practices [4]. - The new Chair is likely to participate in the March and April interest rate meetings, potentially influencing monetary policy before officially taking office [4]. Group 3: Policy Environment - The incoming Fed Chair will face a policy environment characterized by calls for interest rate cuts, with the Fed having already lowered rates by 25 basis points in September due to signs of a weakening labor market [5]. - There is a consensus among Trump and his allies, including Mnuchin, advocating for further rate reductions, with expectations of a 125 basis point cut by year-end [6].