YYTH(SH:600096) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-29 00:27Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 37.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 19.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.73 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%, aligning with expectations [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 7.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 47.4% by the end of the third quarter of 2025 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from phosphate fertilizer increased by 3.1% to 12.5 billion yuan, with sales volume up by 2.3% and average price up by 0.7% to 3,394 yuan/ton [1] - Urea revenue decreased by 14.6% to 3.7 billion yuan, primarily due to a 17.7% drop in average price to 1,744 yuan/ton, although sales volume increased by 3.7% to 2.12 million tons [1] - Revenue from feed-grade phosphates rose by 18.4% to 1.73 billion yuan, driven by a 22% increase in average price to 4,200 yuan/ton, despite a 3.2% decline in sales volume to 410,000 tons [1] Quarterly Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, revenue was 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.2% [2] - The net profit for the third quarter was 1.97 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 24% and 34% respectively [2] - The gross margin for the third quarter was 22.5%, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.2 and 3.2 percentage points, mainly due to rising export prices of phosphate fertilizers [2] Phosphate Market Trends - The phosphate rock supply-demand situation remains tight, with prices expected to stay high; the average price of phosphate rock (30%) is currently 1,017 yuan/ton [3] - The demand side is bolstered by rapid growth in lithium battery storage installations, driving demand for lithium iron phosphate and other new energy materials, which in turn increases the demand for upstream phosphate rock [3] - The company is actively advancing the exploration and construction of the Zhenxiong phosphate mine, which is expected to enhance long-term profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 for both years [4] - The target price has been raised by 10% to 33 yuan, indicating an upside potential of 18.5% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4/10.3 for 2025/26 [4] - The company maintains an outperform rating in the industry [4]