党的二十届四中全会会议精神对重点商品的影响分析（宏观经济&稀贵金属篇）

Macroeconomic Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes "putting economic construction at the center" for the first time in ten years, aiming for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [1] - The focus on "daring to fight and being good at fighting" is reiterated, which is beneficial for gaining initiative in both domestic and international contexts, and overcoming reform obstacles [1] - New productive forces are positioned as a core strategic priority, highlighting the goal of "seizing the technological high ground" and the ambition of becoming a "strong aerospace nation" [1] - In the consumer sector, the proposal to lead new supply with new demand aims to cultivate new consumption growth points [1] - The guidance for economic work in the fourth quarter emphasizes ensuring the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals, with a focus on policies that connect with next year [1] Precious Metals Sector - The proposal suggests developing emerging pillar industries, accelerating the growth of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which could create several trillion-yuan markets [2] - In the photovoltaic industry chain, the copper-to-silver technology is becoming a focal point for solar cell development, with companies like Poly and Dike focusing on its application [2] - The strong performance of silver prices, influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, significantly increases the cost burden of silver paste in photovoltaic cells [2] - The application of copper instead of silver is expected to scale up by 2026, which will lower material costs and negatively impact medium-term silver demand in photovoltaics [2] - After the end of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, high silver prices are unlikely to sustain long-term [2] Future Industry Development - The proposal also outlines forward-looking layouts for future industries, promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [3] - In the hydrogen energy sector, platinum is a crucial component of PEM electrolyzers and fuel cells, which convert hydrogen energy into electricity [3] - Some hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are already in trial operation, offering advantages such as long range, near-zero emissions, and fast refueling, indicating potential for further promotion [3] - The World Platinum Investment Council projects that hydrogen applications will drive platinum demand to 900,000 ounces by 2030, accounting for 10% of total platinum demand, becoming a new growth point after catalytic converters and jewelry [3] - Limited growth in platinum supply over the next few years suggests that platinum prices are likely to perform strongly [3]