Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-29 00:40Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 3.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 248 million, up 22% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for Q3 alone was 1.07 billion, reflecting a 14.8% year-on-year growth, while net profit for the quarter was 77 million, a 13.6% increase [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook for the frozen baking industry, which is experiencing rapid growth due to increasing penetration rates [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.2%, which remained stable year-on-year [3] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 28.9%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points due to rising raw material costs [2] - The company’s sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 9.5%, and the management expense ratio fell by 1.5 percentage points to 5.3%, indicating improved cost management [2] Revenue Breakdown - Frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 55% of total revenue in the first three quarters, growing nearly 10% year-on-year, driven by new product launches and growth in restaurant clients [2] - Revenue from baking ingredients, including cream and sauces, made up about 45% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 24% [2] - The company saw a significant increase in revenue from cream products, which grew by about 40% year-on-year, and sauce products, which increased by slightly over 35% [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from circulation channels accounted for about 48% of total revenue, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - Supermarket channel revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, making up about 30% of total revenue [2] - Innovative channels, including restaurants, tea drinks, and new retail, contributed approximately 22% of total revenue, with a combined year-on-year growth rate of about 40% [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 333 million, 392 million, and 461 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 18% [1] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 21x, 18x, and 15x for 2025-2027 [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its scale, funding, management, and R&D advantages, as well as its focus on a big product strategy and multi-channel development [1][4]