亿纬锂能(300014)：一次性计提扰动业绩 储能电芯供不应求涨价落地在即

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 16.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.49% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.211 billion yuan, up 15.13% year-on-year and up 140.16% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The operating profit, after considering stock incentive expenses and customer rebates, was 1.457 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.43% [1] Business Performance - The company achieved a total shipment of 32.8 GWh in Q3 2025, comprising 13.1 GWh of power batteries and 19.7 GWh of energy storage batteries [2] - For the full year, the company expects power battery shipments to reach 50 GWh and energy storage battery shipments to be between 70-75 GWh [2] - The company anticipates an increase in energy storage capacity by 10-12 GWh in H2 2025 due to external cooperation and the release of capacity from its Malaysian factory, with a target of exceeding 100 GWh in 2026 [2] Profitability Outlook - The unit net profit for power batteries in Q3 was 0.03 yuan/Wh, corresponding to a net profit margin of 5%, indicating stable profitability [2] - The gross margin for energy storage batteries has recovered to 12%, with expectations for further improvement to around 15% in Q4 2025 due to price increases [2] - The overall profitability of the core battery business is expected to improve significantly by 2026, driven by stable pricing in the battery supply chain and high demand in the electric commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors [2] Market Position and Future Plans - The company is preparing for an H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, expected in Q4 2025, aiming to raise 1 billion USD, which could enhance its international pricing and liquidity [2] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.362 billion yuan, 7.477 billion yuan, and 9.651 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 71.4%, and 29.1% respectively [3] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.13 yuan, 3.65 yuan, and 4.72 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the anticipated growth in both power and energy storage businesses [3]