米奥会展(300795)：关注四季度弹性 印尼、巴西海外仓预计逐步落地

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, which met expectations, with a significant increase in contract liabilities indicating a promising Q4 peak season [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 160 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.09 million yuan, down 30.36% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 401 million yuan, a decline of 5.67%, with a net profit of 34.63 million yuan, down 49.17% year-on-year [1] - R&D expenses increased by 37.43% year-on-year, primarily due to heightened investment in the "AI Hui Zhan" platform [1] Contract Liabilities and Q4 Outlook - As of the end of September, contract liabilities reached 242 million yuan, a substantial increase of 171.07% from the beginning of the year, mainly due to pre-received payments for Q4 exhibitions [1] - The Q4 is expected to be the company's most critical operational quarter, contributing a significant portion of annual revenue and profit [2] - The company has scheduled several exhibitions in Q4, including new events in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Japan, and Dubai, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [2] New Business Initiatives - The company is launching a new overseas warehouse business, with initial operations in Indonesia and Brazil, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [2] - A joint venture with Panex WD International Limited will focus on supply chain management and international logistics, potentially generating significant revenue in the coming year [2] Profit Forecast Adjustments - Due to delays in the Indian exhibition and the impact of new business on average profit margins, the company has revised its profit forecasts downward for 2025-2027 [3] - The new projections for net profit attributable to shareholders are 144 million yuan, 203 million yuan, and 227 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting declines of 49%, 42%, and 47% from previous estimates [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 29, 20, and 18 for 2025-2027, with a target market value of 5.5 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 34% from the current market value [3]