XZCE(SZ:002534) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-29 00:38Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in performance for Q3 2025, with revenue of 4.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, down 58.3% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to delays in the delivery of overseas boiler equipment to Q4 [1] - Despite the Q3 downturn, the company anticipates an overall improvement in performance for the full year, with a projected net profit of 400-500 million yuan for 2025-2026, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9%/+25% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 was 1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.6%, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 64.6% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin for the first three quarters was 19.3%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.2%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year. For Q3 alone, the gross margin was 17.1%, down 1.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 3%, down 1.9 percentage points [1] Orders and Cash Flow - New orders for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 4.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%. The backlog of orders stood at 5.88 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, but the company expects a good growth trend in orders for the full year [1] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 350 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 130%, indicating ongoing improvement in operational quality [2] Strategic Developments - The chairman has increased his stake in the company by nearly 50 million yuan at a price of 17.09 yuan per share, reflecting confidence in the company's development [3] - In the nuclear power sector, the company has provided significant equipment to major partners and is set to launch a new nuclear power workshop by the end of September 2025. A joint venture focused on nuclear energy technology has also been established [3] - In the solar thermal sector, the company has developed advanced systems for solar thermal and storage, with projections indicating substantial growth in China's solar thermal market by 2030, 2040, and 2050 [3] Market Position and International Expansion - The company is recognized as a leading domestic manufacturer of waste heat boilers, with a strong market share and potential benefits from domestic infrastructure investments [4] - The company is actively pursuing international opportunities, collaborating with renowned global firms to expand into markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 430 million, 510 million, and 560 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -3%, +21%, and +8%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 32, 27, and 25 times [5]