结束QT未能解除流动性警报！小摩：美联储恐需重启“2019式”巨量注资

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may take additional measures to address pressures in the funding markets, even after potentially ending its balance sheet reduction this week [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Multiple Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, expect the Fed to stop reducing its $6.6 trillion portfolio of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as early as this month [1] - JPMorgan strategists anticipate that the end of quantitative tightening (QT) will prevent further liquidity loss in the system, but funding pressures may persist [1] - The Fed is likely to implement temporary open market operations to alleviate common market tensions during key payment dates [1][2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Since the Fed began reducing its asset portfolio in June 2022, over $2 trillion has exited the financial system, leading to a significant drop in the reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) balance [2] - Various borrowing rates used in interbank lending have risen and remained high, indicating that bank reserves have not fully circulated within the financial system [2] - The Fed's benchmark rate has increased four times since the last meeting in September, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Once the Fed halts the reduction of its Treasury holdings, it is expected to reinvest funds into newly issued Treasuries to rebuild bank reserves, with regular T-bill purchases anticipated to start in early 2026 [2] - JPMorgan strategists suggest that the Fed should consider lowering the rate on the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) by 5 basis points to encourage more active use of the facility [3] - Market observers believe that the Fed's work will not be complete after ending asset reduction, as it may need to expand its asset size again to maintain balance in the reserves market [4]