沪镍 震荡格局难破

Core Insights - The global nickel market is experiencing a significant supply surplus, with refined nickel production outpacing consumption, leading to a supply excess of 30.51 million tons from January to August 2025 [1][2] - Domestic refined nickel production in China has increased substantially, with a year-on-year growth of 37.48% during the same period, while the industry operating rate remains high at 94.07% [2] - The stainless steel sector, a major consumer of nickel, is facing challenges with weak demand despite a slight increase in production, while the new energy sector shows signs of recovery [3] Supply Dynamics - Global refined nickel production reached 2.5494 million tons from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 301,600 tons, while consumption was only 2.2443 million tons [1] - Nickel ore imports in China totaled 26.1336 million tons, up 6.47% year-on-year, and nickel iron imports rose by 28.1% to 7.267 million tons [1] - The supply surplus is expected to worsen, with forecasts indicating a surplus of 198,000 tons in 2025 and 256,000 tons in 2026 [1] Demand Challenges - The stainless steel industry is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) scenario, with prices declining and high nickel iron prices falling below production costs [3] - The new energy sector shows a potential rebound, with a reported 11% increase in sulfate nickel production in August, driven by higher operating rates of ternary precursors [3] - Alloy demand is uneven, with strong growth in global automotive sales supporting nickel demand, while the electronics sector remains weak [3] Inventory and Price Outlook - Nickel inventories are at high levels, with SHFE nickel warehouse receipts up 13% year-on-year and LME nickel inventories surging 72% [4] - The nickel market is characterized by a significant divergence of opinions, with factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and supportive policies for new energy providing some price support, while ongoing supply surplus and high inventories limit price increases [4] - The nickel market is expected to remain in a volatile state unless there is a substantial improvement in supply-demand fundamentals [4]