Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing increasing signs of oversupply, leading to a decline in oil prices despite previous strong upward momentum caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply for an extended period due to continuous supply growth and limited demand increase, resulting in significant downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. - U.S. oil production has been sluggish this year, primarily due to capital constraints limiting drilling activities, while low oil prices have restricted upstream investments in shale oil [2][4]. - Multiple institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth this year, with expected increases being lower than last year [2][4]. Market Reactions and Speculation - Speculative positions have been significantly reduced as investors reposition themselves in anticipation of an impending supply surplus, reinforcing downward price pressure [1][3]. - The recent record high in global seaborne crude oil indicates a persistent rise in oversupply [1]. OPEC's Role and Market Signals - OPEC's upcoming meeting may agree to increase production, which could further signal a controlled supply approach rather than relying solely on resource reserves [2][3]. - The ability of OPEC and other oil-producing countries to adjust production policies reflects their soft power in the market, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations and supply signals [3][4]. Long-term Trends and Soft Power Theory - The dynamics of the oil market have shifted from traditional resource control to a focus on rule reconstruction, expectation management, and value innovation, as outlined in Deng Zhenghong's soft power theory [3][4]. - The competition in the oil market is expected to deepen, focusing on technological standards, financial rule reconstruction, and adaptive capabilities [4].
邓正红能源软实力：原油市场短期扰动与长期趋势分离 面临明显的下行压力
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-29 03:40