美国债务冲到37万亿美元！这钱还不上咋办？背后有何规则？

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a rapid increase in debt, with an additional $1 trillion added in just two months, averaging $6 billion in new debt issuance daily [6][10] - The current interest rate on U.S. government bonds is approximately 4.5%, leading to significant interest payments that consume 20% of government revenue, raising concerns about funding for public services and infrastructure [10][12] - The decline in investor interest in U.S. Treasury bonds is evident, with the bid-to-cover ratio for 10-year bonds dropping from 2.8 to 2.3, indicating reduced demand and potentially higher borrowing costs for the government [20][22] Debt Growth - The U.S. debt has reached an unprecedented level of $38 trillion, more than five times historical highs, raising sustainability concerns [30] - The government relies on continuous bond issuance to maintain operations, a model that may become increasingly risky as interest rates rise [8][12] Interest Burden - Rising interest rates have significantly increased the cost of borrowing, with interest expenses becoming a heavy burden on the government budget [10][14] - If the trend of rising interest rates continues, it could lead to further deterioration of the fiscal situation [14] Historical Context - Historically, the U.S. has managed debt through land sales, but such methods are no longer viable in the current economic landscape [16][18] - Recent proposals to sell Alaskan land for $2 trillion have failed to attract interest due to high prices and geopolitical factors [18] Investor Sentiment - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and global market changes have led to a decrease in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [22] - A potential downgrade in the U.S. credit rating could further increase borrowing costs and exacerbate fiscal pressures [26][28] Future Risks - A debt default or government shutdown could have catastrophic consequences, far exceeding previous crises, and could undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar [30] - Countries like China have reduced their holdings of U.S. debt from a peak of $1.32 trillion to $730 billion, while increasing investments in gold and other assets to enhance economic resilience [30]