2025年，是尽快买房还是再等一等？马云和李嘉诚不谋而合

Core Viewpoint - Both Jack Ma and Li Ka-shing suggest that potential homebuyers should "wait a little longer" rather than "buy as soon as possible" due to significant changes in the Chinese real estate market [1][6]. Market Status - As of September 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities has dropped to 14,447 yuan per square meter, continuing a decline for 29 months [3]. - From January to September 2024, the sales area of new residential properties was 70,284 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%. The sales revenue for new residential properties was 68,880 billion yuan, down 24% [3]. Government Policies - Local governments have implemented various measures to stimulate the market, including lifting purchase restrictions, reducing mortgage rates from a peak of over 5.88% to 3.2%, and lowering down payment ratios to 15% [4]. - A tax reduction policy has been introduced, imposing a uniform contract tax rate of 1% for homes not exceeding 140 square meters [4]. Market Trends - The effectiveness of these stimulus policies appears limited, as the real estate market is in a long-term adjustment phase, leading to confusion about whether to buy now or wait until 2025 [6]. - Jack Ma predicts that with the slowdown of urbanization, housing prices are unlikely to see significant increases in the next decade, instead remaining stable or declining [7]. - Li Ka-shing echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that housing is primarily for living, and has been selling properties at discounted prices, indicating a cautious outlook on the market [8]. Market Logic - The trend of real estate adjustment is difficult to reverse, as the market has experienced 23 years of price increases since the housing reform in 1998, with a high likelihood of a bubble correction [10]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is as high as 40, and 25 in second and third-tier cities, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for average residents [10]. - Continuous price declines have eroded market confidence, shifting buyer sentiment from speculation to caution, as the expectation of rising prices has diminished [10]. Conclusion - Considering macroeconomic conditions, resident income levels, and market sentiment, waiting until 2025 may be a more prudent choice for potential homebuyers, as they are likely to encounter lower prices and reduced purchasing costs [11].