5年后，现在200万房子还能值多少？3大趋势已暗示结果

Core Viewpoint - The future value of real estate, currently worth 2 million, is under debate, with opinions divided between potential recovery and a decline in value due to various trends [1] Group 1: Downward Trend in Housing Prices - The established trend of declining housing prices has been evident since 2022, with an average national price drop exceeding 30%. For instance, in Shanghai, prices have fallen from over 90,000 yuan per square meter in 2021 to around 60,000 yuan now, indicating significant risks for investors who entered at high prices [3] Group 2: Aging Population Impact - China is rapidly aging, with the population aged 60 and above expected to reach 310 million by the end of 2024 and surpass 400 million by 2035. In contrast, the younger population (those born in the 1990s and 2000s) is declining, leading to limited housing demand as most elderly individuals already own homes [4] Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The real estate market is experiencing an oversupply, with 600 million completed housing units capable of accommodating 3 billion people if each unit houses five individuals. Additionally, over 10 million new homes are added to the market annually, while 96% of families already own homes, indicating a saturated demand [6]