特朗普24小时变脸，全球蒸发2万亿美元，稀土反制让白宫进退两难

Group 1 - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S. starting November 1 caused significant market volatility, with global stock markets losing over $2 trillion in a single day [2][3] - The aggressive trade conflict was short-lived, as Vice President Pence quickly signaled a willingness for rational dialogue with China the following day [4][5] - This pattern of strong pressure followed by a de-escalation has been referred to as the "TACO strategy" by Wall Street observers, indicating a tendency for Trump to retreat at critical moments [5] Group 2 - A report from Guangfa Securities indicated that implementing a 100% import tariff is nearly impossible in practice and serves more as a negotiation tactic rather than a genuine policy [7] - In response to U.S. pressure, China firmly stated that using high tariffs is not the correct way to handle bilateral trade relations and initiated rare earth export controls as a countermeasure [8][9] - Rare earth elements are crucial for high-tech industries, including chip manufacturing and defense, highlighting the U.S.'s significant dependency on China in these key sectors [10] Group 3 - The abrupt change in the Trump administration's stance reveals its entanglement in multiple domestic and foreign crises, including a government shutdown affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees [12][13] - The situation escalated with a donor contributing $130 million to the Pentagon to cover military salaries during the shutdown, while widespread protests against Trump's governance occurred across the country [16][18] - Despite the political rhetoric of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., the reality shows a continued outflow of capital and the closure of domestic factories, as exemplified by the Amrus hand truck company [19][20] Group 4 - Although 244,000 manufacturing jobs were added in 2024, these were primarily in high-tech sectors, leaving traditional labor-intensive industries struggling [21][22] - Trump's "maximum pressure" approach is essentially a political gamble, relying on the assumption that China will make concessions first [23] - The current situation necessitates Trump to address domestic turmoil while maintaining a tough external posture, which may be a strategy to divert attention from internal issues [24][26]