钨矿战略地位提升，矿业ETF（561330）午后大涨超3%，年内涨超有色

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market has entered a new upward trend, leading to a rise in the mining sector, with the mining ETF (561330) experiencing a significant increase of over 3% in the afternoon and a year-to-date gain of over 84% [1][3]. Industry Summary - The tungsten market has seen a resurgence, with prices for black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) reaching 288,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 3,000 CNY per ton from the previous trading day. APT (ammonium paratungstate ≥88.5%) is priced at 425,000 CNY/ton, up 7,000 CNY per ton, and tungsten powder (≥99.7%) is at 635 CNY/gram, rising by 5 CNY per gram [3]. - Tungsten's strategic resource status has been elevated, with demand continuing to grow. In the first half of 2025, China's tungsten consumption is projected to total 35,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with primary tungsten consumption at 30,400 tons, up 2.5% [3]. - The increase in demand is driven by significant production growth in downstream industries such as excavators, metal cutting machine tools, automobiles, and photovoltaics [3]. - Domestic tungsten prices are under pressure due to increased demand, safety production in mines, and environmental inspections, leading to a tight supply-demand situation. Available inventory has been depleted, and while Kazakhstan's Bakuta tungsten mine has potential for increased output, capacity release will take time, potentially exacerbating supply shortages in the short term [3]. ETF Performance Summary - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the China Securities Nonferrous Metals Index by nearly 10% year-to-date as of October 28, 2025. The ETF tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has a more concentrated representation of leading stocks [4]. - The mining ETF consists of 37 components, with the top ten stocks accounting for 57.34% of the index, compared to 48.32% for the top ten stocks in the broader nonferrous metals index, indicating a more precise capture of market trends [4]. - The mining theme index has a higher proportion of "gold, copper, and rare earths" at 56.2%, compared to 52.5% in the broader index, benefiting from favorable catalysts in these popular sectors [6]. Market Outlook - The nonferrous mining sector is expected to have long-term investment value, supported by a recovery in risk appetite following lower-than-expected U.S. core CPI data, which has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10]. - The copper market is showing strong fundamentals, with global copper mine production expected to fall short of expectations due to frequent disruptions in major mines, leading to a projected decrease of 220,000 tons in global copper concentrate output in 2025 [10]. - Demand for copper is anticipated to grow rapidly due to its extensive applications in electric vehicles and AI data centers, with long-term investments in power grids and data centers further supporting copper prices [10]. Investment Opportunity - Investors are encouraged to consider the mining ETF (561330), which currently has a scale of 784 million CNY, ranking first among similar index ETFs, offering superior liquidity and exposure to "gold, copper, and rare earth" opportunities [11].