Core Viewpoint - The new IPO pricing regulations in Hong Kong have led to a significant profit-making effect, making new stock subscriptions a market focus, with a notable interest in Minglue Technology's IPO due to its strong backing and oversubscription rates [1][2]. IPO Details - Minglue Technology's IPO ended on October 28, with a public offering oversubscription rate of 3399 times, and shares are expected to start trading on November 3, 2025 [1]. - The company plans to issue 7.219 million Class A shares, with 10% allocated for public sale and 90% for international sale, at a price of HKD 141 per share [1]. - The IPO valuation is approximately HKD 20.357 billion, reflecting a 56% premium over its last financing round [1]. Share Structure and Stability Measures - Post-IPO, only about 2.745% of shares will be available for trading, indicating a small float to stabilize the stock price [3][5]. - Minglue Technology employed a "low-version issuance" strategy, limiting the public offering to 10% to reduce the float and stabilize the stock price [3]. - The company has secured seven cornerstone investors, who will collectively purchase approximately USD 59 million worth of shares, accounting for about 45.1% of the total offering [4][5]. Financial Performance and Market Position - Minglue Technology has raised over USD 627 million through 27 financing rounds, with major shareholders including Tencent, Sequoia China, Temasek, and Kuaishou [6]. - The company's market valuation has fluctuated significantly, with a peak valuation of approximately USD 3.05 billion in November 2020, dropping to around USD 542 million in 2023, and recovering to USD 1.666 billion by January 2024 [6][7]. - The company holds a 3.8% market share in the data intelligence application software sector, making it the largest player in China by revenue [17]. Revenue and Growth Prospects - Minglue Technology's revenue has shown volatility, with figures of RMB 1.269 billion in 2022, RMB 1.462 billion in 2023, and RMB 1.381 billion in 2024, indicating a lack of consistent growth [10][11]. - The company has been focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities to drive revenue growth, particularly in marketing and operational intelligence services [13][16]. - The adjusted net losses have been decreasing, with figures of RMB 1.099 billion in 2022, RMB 174 million in 2023, and RMB 45 million in 2024, with a profit of RMB 24.87 million in the first half of 2025 [14][15]. Market Valuation Concerns - The IPO valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 14.74 based on the projected revenue for 2024, which is significantly higher than competitors, raising concerns about sustainability if revenue growth does not accelerate [17]. - The company's high valuation may be difficult to maintain without rapid revenue growth, especially given the competitive landscape in the data intelligence sector [17].
实际流通筹码预计仅占2.7%，腾讯加码基石的明略科技-W能否有所表现？