行业龙头亦难抵价格寒冬，“反内卷”能否带动中润光能价值重估？

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Zhongrun Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. (Zhongrun) is advancing its IPO process in Hong Kong, having submitted its application twice, with a focus on specialized photovoltaic cell manufacturing and vertical expansion into module production [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongrun is the world's largest specialized manufacturer of photovoltaic cells, with a significant market share of 18.3% among specialized manufacturers and 14.6% among all manufacturers, based on a projected shipment of 34.5GW in 2024 [1]. - The company has two main business lines: photovoltaic cells and modules, with cell revenue accounting for 81.1% of total revenue in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Zhongrun's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected at 12.517 billion, 20.838 billion, and 11.320 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 834 million, 1.681 billion, and a loss of 1.363 billion RMB [1]. - In the first half of 2025, Zhongrun reported revenue of 7.465 billion RMB, a 26.46% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.204 billion RMB, reversing previous losses [1][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price declines, with prices for mainstream products dropping by 60% to 90% compared to 2020 highs, leading to a competitive environment characterized by aggressive pricing strategies [7][9]. - Zhongrun's average selling price for photovoltaic cells decreased from 0.9945 RMB/W in 2022 to 0.3202 RMB/W in 2024, reflecting the industry's pricing pressures [8]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Zhongrun is capitalizing on the shift from P-type to N-type photovoltaic cells, with N-type cell revenue growing from 0% in 2022 to 48.1% in 2024, driven by advancements in technology [3][4]. - The company is focusing on R&D for advanced technologies such as HJT, TOPCon, and perovskite cells, which are critical for maintaining competitive advantages and ensuring long-term growth [10]. Group 5: International Expansion - Zhongrun has established a global presence, with over 15GW of monocrystalline cell capacity and 3GW of module capacity overseas, serving customers in more than 32 countries [5]. - In 2024, 67.1% of Zhongrun's revenue came from mainland China, while 32.9% was generated from international markets, indicating successful international expansion efforts [6].