Core Viewpoint - The company Beike is covered for the first time with a target price of HKD 65.64, based on a 26x adjusted PE for 2026, and is rated as "Buy" [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Beike, established in 2001 (formerly known as Lianjia), is a leading O2O real estate transaction platform in China [1] - The company is expected to benefit from supportive policies that may lead to a moderate market recovery, highlighting its importance as a channel leader [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The real estate market is building a foundation for stabilization, with central policies signaling support for the sector [1] - In the first half of 2025, the nationwide sales area of commercial housing saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, and second-hand housing transactions showed a notable recovery [1] - However, new and second-hand housing sales faced renewed pressure since the third quarter, with the fourth quarter entering a high base period [1] Group 3: Business Performance - Beike's GTV growth is expected to significantly outperform the industry, with market share anticipated to continue rising from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company has implemented a new system in Shanghai, optimizing personnel and focusing on core quality listings [2] - The AICRM intelligent system has covered over 335,000 agents, with penetration rates in Beijing and Shanghai reaching 75% as of August [2] Group 4: Home Decoration Business - The home decoration business is projected to grow, with expected revenue increases of 9%, 13%, and 12% from 2025 to 2027, reaching CNY 161 billion, CNY 182 billion, and CNY 204 billion respectively [3] - The operating profit margin for home decoration is expected to reach 3-5% in 2026, with a long-term target of 8-10% by 2028-2029 [3] - The company aims to enhance profitability through price increases and improved efficiency in material and labor costs [3] Group 5: Financial Forecast - Revenue is forecasted to reach CNY 100.1 billion, CNY 113.3 billion, and CNY 125.9 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +7%, +13%, and +11% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be CNY 60.4 billion, CNY 82.01 billion, and CNY 98.2 billion for the same period, driven by revenue improvement and operational leverage [3]
贝壳-W(2423.HK)：地产龙头引领长期复苏 家装利润可期