钢价维持弱势震荡格局

Group 1 - Steel prices have returned to year-to-date lows, with rebar prices in Shanghai down 5.8% and hot-rolled coil prices down 4.6% since the beginning of the year, both approximately 100 yuan/ton above their annual lows [2] - The current low steel prices provide a psychological safety margin, indicating that negative factors have largely been priced in, making it unlikely for prices to drop significantly further unless macroeconomic conditions worsen [2] - Steel mills are facing significant losses, with average losses of 86 yuan/ton for steel billets and -163 yuan/ton for electric arc furnace steel, while hot-rolled steel profits are around 50 yuan/ton [2] Group 2 - Despite shrinking profits, steel supply remains high, with an estimated daily production of 2.4 million tons of molten iron, driven by factors such as market share maintenance and high costs of furnace operation [5] - Demand remains weak, with traditional peak season performance disappointing due to ongoing declines in real estate and insufficient project funding, leading to a "旺季不旺" (peak season not strong) scenario [5] - Steel exports have shown a year-on-year increase but a month-on-month decline, with September exports of steel billets at 1.4936 million tons, down 15.34% month-on-month but up 41.85% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy environment is expected to play a crucial role in determining future steel market trends, with expectations for stronger growth policies from domestic meetings and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [8] - There are three key expectations: stronger domestic growth policies, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a thawing in U.S.-China trade relations, which could significantly impact market sentiment [8] - The outcome of upcoming macroeconomic events is likely to influence steel prices, with limited downward space for prices unless macroeconomic performance falls short of expectations [9]