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立华股份(300761)三季报点评:畜禽出栏量符合预期 年底生猪成本目标12元

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 138 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-to-date revenue of 13.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but a significant decline in net profit by 75.3% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 4.09 billion yuan, 4.27 billion yuan, and 5.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 3.0%, and 5.4% respectively [1] - The net profit for the same quarters was 206 million yuan, -57 million yuan, and 138 million yuan [1] - As of September 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 43.2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from June [1] Livestock Production - The company reported a total of 1.5058 million pigs sold from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90.2%, with a target of 2 million pigs for the year [2] - The average cost of raising pigs decreased from 12.8 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025 to 12.3 yuan/kg in June, with a target of 12 yuan/kg by year-end [2] - The net profit from the pig business for Q3 is estimated to be around 100 million yuan [2] Poultry Production - The company sold 415 million yellow feather chickens from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [3] - The quarterly sales figures for yellow feather chickens were 120 million, 140 million, and 150 million, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 11.9%, and 10.4% [3] - The cost of raising chickens decreased to below 11 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025, but saw a slight increase in Q3 due to rising raw material prices [3] Future Projections - The company expects to maintain pig sales at 2 million heads annually from 2025 to 2027, with chicken sales projected to reach 568 million, 619 million, and 668 million respectively [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 18.242 billion yuan, 20.558 billion yuan, and 21.909 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 447 million yuan, 1.551 billion yuan, and 1.666 billion yuan [4] - Adjustments in projections are based on revised expectations for pig and chicken prices, production costs, and sales volumes [4]