中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 2026年农林牧渔年度策略：布局年？抓紧龙头 2 0 2 5 . 1 2 . 1 5 中泰农业团队 分析师：王佳博 执业证书编号：S0740523010002 分析师：严瑾 执业证书编号： S0740523010001 展望 中国:CPI:食品烟酒:畜肉类:当月同比 中国:CPI:食品烟酒:粮食:当月同比 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 94-01 95-05 96-09 98-01 9 -05 0 -09 02-01 03-05 04-09 06-01 07-05 08-09 10-01 11-05 12-09 14-01 15-05 16-09 18-01 19-05 20-09 2 -01 23-05 24-09 图表1：CPI:当月同比（月） 图表2：农林牧渔基金持仓市值 2 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 14-03 14-10 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日养殖业板块主力资金净流入1124.65万元，游资资金净流入248.51万元，散户资 金净流出1373.16万元。养殖业板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 4270.10万 | 1.53% | -2381.34万 | -0.85% | -1888.76万 | -0.68% | | 300498 温氏股份 | | 2160.29万 | 5.09% | -1022.58万 | -2.41% | -1137.71万 | -2.68% | | 300967 晓鸣股份 | | 728.00万 | 7.51% | 107.64万 | 1.11% | -835.64万 | -8.62% | | 605296 神农集团 | | 643.70万 | 9.91% | -132.66万 | -2.04% | -511.04万 | -7.86% | | ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月13日 2025年12月14日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（186） 优于大市 粮价有望筑底企稳，看好肉奶周期共振反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 12 日生猪价格 11.34 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.07%；7kg 仔猪价格约 219.52 元/头，周环比+1.21%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 12 日，鸡苗价格 3.38 元/ 羽，周环比+2.11%；毛鸡价格 7.24 元/公斤，周环比+2.26%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 11 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.6/5.6/8.2 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +2.22%/+7.69%/+0.00%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 12 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.09 元/斤，周环比+3.00%，同比+0.98%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国 内育肥公牛出栏价为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on livestock and feed companies [7]. Core Insights - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [15][18]. - For soybeans, the report suggests a recovery in U.S. imports, which is likely to support price recovery [33][35]. - The beef market is projected to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced production and strong domestic demand [3][6]. - The dairy sector is expected to experience a price reversal due to a combination of reduced supply and increased demand for both meat and milk [4][6]. - The pork market is anticipated to face a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half [6][7]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report predicts a reduction in global corn production by 3.27 million tons, leading to a decrease in global ending stocks and a tightening supply-demand ratio [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by low trader inventories [18][19]. Soybeans - The global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly, with a projected rise in U.S. imports and a positive outlook for domestic soybean meal prices [33][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade relations and South American weather conditions for future price movements [38]. Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with an increase in production forecasts from major exporting countries, leading to a slight rise in the global ending stocks ratio [2][45]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize, influenced by the overall supply situation and potential government storage interventions [48][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production, with prices expected to rise due to strong domestic demand and reduced imports [3][6]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices likely to trend upwards [3][6]. Dairy - The report indicates a potential reversal in the dairy market, driven by reduced cow inventories and a tightening supply-demand balance [4][6]. - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise as a result of these factors [4][6]. Pork - The U.S. pork market is projected to see a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half of the year [6][7]. - Domestic breeding sow inventories are stabilizing, which may help support industry profitability [6][7]. Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased production and consumption anticipated as avian influenza impacts diminish [6][7]. - Domestic chicken supply is projected to stabilize, with a focus on internal demand recovery [6][7].

证券日报网讯 12月12日晚间，立华股份发布公告称，公司于2025年12月12日召开第四届董事会第九次 会议，会议审议通过了《关于为合作养殖农户提供担保的议案》，同意公司为合作养殖农户向银行等金 融机构融资提供合计不超过人民币36，000万元的担保额度。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

来源：新浪财经-鹰眼工作室 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司（证券简称：立华股份，证券代码：300761）12月13日发布公告称，为 应对饲料原料及生猪价格波动风险，公司计划2026年度开展商品期货和期权套期保值业务，预计保证金 及权利金最高占用额不超过3亿元，任一交易日持有合约价值上限30亿元。该议案已获公司第四届董事 会第九次会议审议通过。 套期保值业务核心要素 财务处理方面，公司将依据《企业会计准则第24号——套期会计》等规定，对套期工具及相关损益进行 核算，确保信息披露真实准确。 市场影响与投资者关注 公司此次套期保值业务聚焦与生产经营直接相关的品种，具体交易要素如下： 项目具体内容交易目的规避玉米、豆粕等饲料原料及生猪价格波动风险，锁定养殖成本及利润交易品种 玉米、豆粕、生猪等商品期货及期权合约（交易所挂牌品种）资金规模保证金及权利金最高3亿元（自 有资金，不含交割款），可循环使用合约价值上限任一交易日最高30亿元（按当前市场价计算）交易期 限2026年1月1日至2026年12月31日决策程序董事会审议通过，无需提交股东大会 业务背景与风险对冲逻辑 作为国内黄羽肉鸡养殖龙头企业，立华股份同时从事生猪养殖 ...

截至发稿，立华股份市值为170亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——实施城乡居民增收计划、降准降息等工具灵活高效运用、增加普通高中学 位……深度解读中央经济工作会议 （记者 贾运可） 每经AI快讯，立华股份（SZ 300761，收盘价：20.36元）12月12日晚间发布公告称，公司第四届第九次 董事会会议于2025年12月12日在公司会议室以现场结合通讯表决的方式召开。会议审议了《关于召开公 司2025年第二次临时股东会的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，立华股份的营业收入构成为：养殖行业占比100.0%。 ...

每经AI快讯，立华股份（SZ 300761，收盘价：20.36元）12月12日晚间发布公告称，为配合推进公司合 作农户发展政策，解决农户建设鸡舍等资金需求，促进公司与合作养殖农户长期合作，公司同意向合作 养殖农户提供合计不超过人民币36,000万元的担保额度，即为合作养殖农户向银行等金融机构融资提供 担保。董事会授权公司总裁或财务总监在授予的额度范围内全权办理与本次担保相关事宜，包括但不限 于协议、合同及其他与担保有关的法律性文件的签订、执行、完成。上述担保额度有效期自2026年1月1 日起至2026年12月31日止。本次提供担保后，公司及控股子公司的担保额度总金额为人民币16.6亿元。 截至2025年12月5日，公司及控股子公司提供担保总余额约为3.31亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产 的3.65%；其中，对合并报表外单位提供的担保总余额约为2.45亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的 2.7%；不存在逾期担保、涉及诉讼的担保及因担保被判决败诉而应承担的担保责任的情况。 2024年1至12月份，立华股份的营业收入构成为：养殖行业占比100.0%。 截至发稿，立华股份市值为170亿元。 每经头条（nbdtout ...

证券代码：300761 证券简称：立华股份 公告编号：2025-087 3、交易金额：预计 2026 年公司所需保证金和权利金最高占用额不超过人民 币 30,000 万元（不含期货标的实物交割款项），有效期内可循环使用，期限内 任一时点的交易金额（含前述投资的收益进行再投资的相关金额）不超过该预计 额度。预计任一交易日持有的最高合约价值不超过 30 亿元（合约价值按拟交易 品种的当前市场价格计算）。 4、已履行审议程序：公司于 2025 年 12 月 12 日召开第四届董事会第九次会 议，审议通过了《关于 2026 年度开展原料、生猪套期保值业务的议案》，同意 公司 2026 年使用不超过人民币 30,000 万元的自有资金进行原料、生猪等期货期 权套期保值业务。 5、风险提示：公司开展商品期货套期保值业务存在一定的价格异常波动风 险、资金风险、技术风险、政策风险等风险，敬请投资者注意。 1 一、套期保值情况概述 关于 2026 年度开展原料、生猪套期保值业务的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1、交易目的：为规避生产经营相 ...