Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Views - The pig farming sector is experiencing significant losses, with prices dropping to 9.46 CNY/kg, indicating a high certainty of continued deep losses in the industry. The expected duration and extent of these losses are surpassing initial forecasts. The focus remains on the reduction of loss-making capacity, with a high likelihood of industry losses in the upcoming quarter. Investors are advised to strengthen their allocations and pay attention to opportunities in bulk agricultural products and edible fungi [12][13] - In the livestock sector, the price of lean meat pigs has fallen below 10 CNY/kg, deepening losses. The market has seen a significant pullback after a brief rebound, with low participation levels. It is anticipated that participants facing high costs will reduce their output over a longer period. Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities during this loss phase, particularly in low-cost pig farming companies such as DeKang Agriculture, Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and others [12][13] - The bulk agricultural products sector is influenced by high oil prices, which are expected to increase production costs and expand demand. The most affected products include vegetable oils and rubber, followed by sugar and corn. Current pricing for major bulk agricultural products has seen some increases, but the market has not fully reflected these changes yet [13] - The mushroom sector, particularly enoki mushrooms, is experiencing unexpected price stability, with key companies reporting high growth. The upcoming release of winter worm summer grass as a new product is anticipated to enhance annual investment value [13] - In the poultry sector, there are seasonal price elasticity opportunities for yellow feathered chickens, while the trend for parent stock in white feathered chickens is noteworthy. Companies such as Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock are highlighted for potential investment [13] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of lean meat pigs is 9.46 CNY/kg, down 12.2% from last month. The average wholesale price of pork is 15.73 CNY/kg, down 11.1% [15][22] - Self-breeding and self-raising profitability has decreased, with average losses of 344.24 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 189.87 CNY per head for purchased piglets. The gross profit from selling piglets has decreased by 62.18 CNY per head [19][20] Bulk Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices have risen to 2452.75 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.0% from last month. Wheat prices have also increased to 2588.11 CNY/ton, up 2.1% [38][40] - The price of domestic soybeans has risen to 4277.37 CNY/ton, up 5.0% from last month [52] Mushroom Sector - The enoki mushroom prices remain unexpectedly stable, with key companies like Zhongxing Mushroom Industry and Xue Rong Biological reporting high growth [13] Poultry Sector - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.11 CNY/kg, down 4.8% from last month. The average price of chicken products is 9 CNY/kg, down 2.7% [25][26] - Profitability for parent stock chickens has increased slightly, while slaughter profits have also seen a rise [28]

Core Viewpoints - The pig prices have entered a bottom area, with a focus on the water product seedling situation in April [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [2] Market Review - In March 2026, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.04 percentage points, with the sector declining by 4.38% compared to a 4.42% decline in the CSI 300 [18][19] - The livestock breeding sector experienced a smaller decline of 1.4% in March [18][22] Livestock Breeding - In March 2026, the national average price of live pigs was 10.06 CNY/kg, down 12.2% month-on-month and down 30.7% year-on-year [28][29] - The average loss for self-bred pigs in March was approximately 291 CNY per head, a decrease of 192 CNY month-on-month [31] - The average price of piglets was 23.6 CNY/kg, down 7.4% month-on-month [32] - The pig-to-feed ratio was 4.18, down 0.65 month-on-month [32] Feed and Animal Health - In March, the prices of aquatic products fluctuated, with a notable increase in feed prices due to rising raw material costs [6] - The report anticipates significant growth in the feed industry sales in March, driven by the upcoming spring seedling investment [6] - Leading feed companies are expected to expand their market share domestically and internationally due to their cost advantages [6] Dairy Cattle - As of March 19, 2026, the price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.03 CNY/kg, down 1.9% year-on-year [6] - The industry is entering a destocking phase, with supply and demand expected to balance in the future [6] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report highlights several key companies with strong financial metrics, including: - Wen's Foodstuffs Group (300498.SZ) with a target price of 18.55 CNY and a PE ratio of 21.41 for 2025E [7] - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) with a target price of 63.40 CNY and a PE ratio of 16.20 for 2025E [7] - Lihua Agricultural (300761.SZ) with a target price of 28.72 CNY and a PE ratio of 29.67 for 2025E [7]

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently facing significant challenges, with pig prices dropping below 10 RMB/kg, reaching a nearly seven-year low, and some areas reporting prices below 9.5 RMB/kg. The average weight of pigs at market remains at a five-year high, indicating that inventory reduction is the primary focus, with no signs of price stabilization [1][1][1]. - The industry is experiencing an average loss of over 350 RMB per head, placing it in a historically deep loss zone [1][1][1]. Key Insights - The price of weaned piglets has seen a seasonal decline post-Chinese New Year, with current prices around 280 RMB per head. Exporting piglets is not profitable, leading some companies to incur losses on exports [1][1][1]. - Despite some demand for piglets from specialized fattening households and free-range groups, the price guidance before September is only around 12 RMB+, suggesting limited potential for price recovery, with risks of falling below cost levels again [1][1][1]. Cost Challenges - The industry has experienced rapid cost reductions over the past two years, primarily due to favorable conditions such as lower feed raw material prices and improved production efficiency from upgraded breeding stock. However, the industry now faces new challenges that may lead to rising costs [3][3][3]. - **Feed Price Increases**: Corn prices have risen nearly 10% year-on-year due to mold issues in North China, while soybean meal faces uncertainties related to customs and tariffs, keeping spot prices strong [3][3][3]. - **Production Efficiency Challenges**: The peak of production efficiency improvements from breeding stock replacements has passed, and during this low cycle, maintaining production, operations, disease control, and employee motivation becomes increasingly difficult, negatively impacting efficiency [3][3][3]. - **Capacity Utilization Issues**: Companies are unable to expand further, leading to underutilization of fattening capacity and difficulties in starting up delivered pig farms, which will affect cost amortization [3][3][3]. Market Outlook - The combination of losses across all segments of pig farming and rising costs suggests a clearer logic for accelerated capacity reduction. Companies with high costs and debt levels are likely to be the primary candidates for capacity exit [3][3][3]. - There is optimism for left-side investment opportunities in the sector, with recommended stocks including Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, Shennong, Tiankang, Lihua, and Juxing [4][4][4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [70]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.50% [13]. - The report highlights ongoing pressures in the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining due to supply-side pressures and a potential increase in slaughter volumes [3][21]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][35]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in milk prices [5][39][42]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement amid external uncertainties [6][45][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2928.56 points, down 4.50% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 9.90 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.79%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.62 kg, indicating a slight increase [21][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and ongoing losses in the sector [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 1.66%. The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has improved slightly [34][35]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. The report expects beef prices to rise as the consumption season approaches [5][40][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2332.86 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.18% week-on-week. The report notes potential improvements in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][45][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 0.30%. Aquaculture prices for various species have remained stable [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market this week will continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live inventory is expected to enter the destocking phase. The theoretical supply in March is at a high level both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the consumption is in the seasonal off - season, so the spot price is expected to remain under pressure. The breeding side is in deep loss with tight cash flow, increasing the sales enthusiasm. With the requirement to reduce the sales weight, the live inventory may decline. From the trend of new piglet data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second quarter will decline to some extent, and factors for the spot price to stabilize and rebound may be accumulating [7]. - In the futures market, one can consider selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts, including selling deep out - of - the - money call options of LH2605 and LH2607 contracts. For the unilateral strategy, short the near - month contracts on rallies; for the inter - month strategy, stay on the sidelines in the short term [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price**: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 9.87 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg, with all regions falling below 10 yuan/kg, and the white strip price also declined. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 280.95 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36.19 yuan/head. The price of sows remained unchanged at 1423.81 yuan/head [4]. - **Capacity**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. The存栏 of reproductive sows in the steel - union sample in February was 5.1873 million, a slight month - on - month decline. The number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate were stable [4]. - **Supply**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in February was 38.8971 million, a month - on - month increase of 678,100. The theoretical supply pressure in the first quarter continued to increase, suppressing the sharp rebound of spot prices. The theoretical slaughter volume in March was at a high level, and from April, it is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: The daily slaughter volume this week was 132,951, a week - on - week increase of 9.5%. The daily slaughter start - up rate was 32.12%, a week - on - week increase of 9.48%. It is currently in the seasonal off - season of consumption, and the downstream's ability to absorb the large supply is limited. Consumption is expected to recover seasonally after April [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening mode dropped to - 263 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening dropped to - 154 yuan/head. The slaughter profit dropped to - 17.8 yuan/head. Pay attention to the impact of feed cost on breeding cost [5]. - **Substitutes**: The prices of beef, mutton, fish, and chicken fluctuated slightly, and the prices of various substitutes were stable [5]. - **Futures Market**: All contracts of live hog futures fell sharply this week, and there was a significant squeeze on the premium in the futures market [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - **Spot Market Prices**: The report shows the historical price trends of national standard pigs, white strips, piglets, and binary sows from 2022 to 2026 [10]. 3.3 Live Hog Market Balance Sheet - Based on piglet data, the supply - demand gap was flat year - on - year from March to May 2025, and widened rapidly from June to December 2025, being higher year - on - year. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will widen in the first and second quarters of 2026, and the center of spot prices is difficult to move up significantly [14][15]. 3.4 Basic Production Capacity Situation - **Reproductive Sow Inventory**: The official存栏 of reproductive sows in December 2025 was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The存栏 data of reproductive sows from three - party institutions increased month - on - month in January 2026 [18]. - **Sow Culling Volume**: The sow culling volume decreased month - on - month in January, which may be related to the sharp rise in spot prices in January [20]. - **Farrowing Efficiency**: The PSY of 16 listed pig enterprises has been increasing year by year. With the continued improvement of breed replacement by medium - sized and small - sized breeding enterprises, the PSY data is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [27][28]. 3.5 Market Supply Situation - **Statistics on Slaughter and Inventory**: The report shows the quarterly slaughter and存栏 of live hogs from 2017 to 2025. The新增 piglet data from the steel - union showed a decline in November 2025 and an increase after December [30][33][36]. - **Inventory Structure and Weight**: The存栏 of commercial pigs in the steel - union sample and the proportion of different weight ranges are presented. The average slaughter weight of live hogs continued to increase slightly this week, and the fat - to - standard price difference continued to decline [43][45][59]. - **Monthly Planned Slaughter of Enterprises**: The report shows the monthly planned slaughter volume of 173 large - scale enterprises from 2022 to 2025, as well as the monthly slaughter volume trends of enterprises such as Muyuan, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Wenshi [46][62]. 3.6 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - **Slaughter Volume and Pork Output**: The report shows the changes in the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughterhouses from 2018 to 2025 and the quarterly pork output of the Ministry of Commerce from 2017 to 2025 [71][73]. - **Slaughter - related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume, daily start - up rate, fresh sales rate, and capacity utilization rate of slaughter enterprises are presented, as well as the trends of wholesale market arrival and wholesale volume [76][82]. - **Competition Product Prices**: The price trends of beef, mutton, white - striped chicken, and crucian carp from 2021 to 2026 are shown [89]. 3.7 Breeding Cost and Industry Profit - **Cost and Profit Trends**: The report shows the profit trends of purchasing piglets for fattening, self - breeding and self - fattening, the price trend of fattening feed, and the pig - to - grain ratio from 2021 to 2026 [96]. - **Expected and Current Breeding Costs**: The expected and current breeding costs of large - scale enterprises in self - breeding and self - fattening mode, as well as the current and expected breeding costs of purchasing piglets for fattening, are presented. The secondary fattening costs of different weight increases are also shown [97][103][104]. 3.8 Futures Market Situation - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: The price trends of various live hog futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 are shown [115]. - **Basis and Spread Trends**: The basis trends of various contracts and the spread trends between different contracts are presented [125][135].

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decline in pig prices, with the national average price dropping to 9.98 CNY/kg, a 4% decrease from the previous week and a 30.9% decrease year-on-year. This decline is attributed to increased supply pressure and rising feed costs, leading to cash flow challenges across the industry [6][14][25]. - The report emphasizes the need for policy adjustments to reduce annual output among leading pig farming companies, suggesting that effective capacity reduction is underway, signaling the potential for a new industry cycle [6][14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, specifically highlighting Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods as key investment opportunities, while also suggesting attention to other companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope [6][14]. Livestock Farming - The average weight of pigs sold this week is approximately 128.6 kg, showing a slight increase from the previous week, but the overall supply pressure remains high [6][14]. - In the broiler chicken sector, the average price for broilers in Yantai is 3.52 CNY/jin, remaining stable, while the price for broiler chicks has increased by 9.8% to 3.2 CNY/chick, indicating potential for improved performance in Q1 2026 for white-feathered chicken companies [6][14]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock for potential gains in the white-feathered chicken market [6][14]. Dairy Industry - The report notes that the price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, reflecting a 1.9% year-on-year decrease and a 0.3% decrease from the previous month. The reduction in milk prices is linked to the end of the stocking season and ongoing adjustments in dairy cow inventory [15][47]. - The report expresses optimism about the future upward cycle of raw milk prices, driven by improvements in supply-demand balance and the cyclical rise in beef prices, recommending companies like Yuran Dairy and Modern Dairy for investment [15][47]. Feed and Animal Health - The report highlights structural price differentiation in the aquaculture sector, with an increase in stock levels compared to last year, which is expected to boost feed demand. The report anticipates significant growth in the aquaculture feed industry in March [16]. - It emphasizes the competitive landscape in the feed industry, suggesting that leading companies are likely to gain market share due to their cost advantages and efficiency, particularly in international markets [16]. - The report also notes that leading animal health companies are exploring new avenues such as pet healthcare and synthetic biology, which could enhance industry profitability [16]. Crop Prices - The report tracks key crop prices, noting that corn prices have increased by 0.3% to 2455 CNY/ton, while soybean meal prices have decreased by 1% to 3405 CNY/ton. Wheat prices have risen by 0.9% to 2600 CNY/ton, indicating a mixed trend in crop pricing [17][50][60]. - The report suggests that rising agricultural commodity prices could improve profitability for planting sectors, benefiting upstream entities like seed and land resource companies [18][50]. Pet Food Market - The report indicates that the urban pet consumption market is projected to reach 312.6 billion CNY by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%. The market is showing signs of consolidation, with leading companies expected to drive the penetration of new product categories [19]. - Companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are highlighted for their innovative product strategies aimed at enhancing nutritional standards and expanding their market presence [19].

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2025 年 12 月 12 日召 开第四届董事会第九次会议，会议审议通过《关于为合作养殖农户提供担保的议 案》，同意为合作养殖农户向银行等金融机构融资提供合计不超过人民币 36,000 万元的担保额度。具体内容详见公司 2025 年 12 月 13 日刊载于巨潮资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn/）的《关于为合作养殖农户提供担保的公告》（公告 编号：2025-086）。 二、担保进展情况 证券代码：300761 证券简称：立华股份 公告编号：2026-010 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司 关于为合作养殖农户提供担保的进展公告 近日，公司与交通银行股份有限公司常州分行（以下简称交行常州分行）签 订了《农户贷担保合作协议》以及《保证合同》，公司为合作养殖农户与交行常 州分行在 2026 年 3 月 13 日至 2030 年 12 月 29 日期间签订的全部授信业务合同 提供最高额担保，担保的最高债权额为人民币 36,000 万 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig prices are hovering at the bottom, suggesting a new cycle is beginning in the industry. The average price for lean pigs is currently 10.4 CNY/kg, which is a 0.1% increase week-on-week but a 28.4% decrease year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2019 [6][14][25] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, particularly large breeding enterprises such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology and smaller companies like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [6][14][15] Livestock Breeding - The report notes that the current cash flow pressure in the industry is exacerbated by rising feed costs, leading to cash flow losses for most breeding groups. The elimination of sows is expected to accelerate, initiating a capacity reduction phase [6][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of the restaurant chain, which could benefit companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Shares in the white feather chicken segment [6][14] Dairy Industry - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is reported at 3.03 CNY/kg, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year, with a stable trend month-on-month. The report suggests that the overall increase in the proportion of breeding cows will help improve the supply-demand balance for raw milk [15][16] Feed and Animal Health - The report highlights that feed prices are rising due to increased fishmeal and soybean meal prices, which could impact the spring stocking of aquatic products. The report anticipates a structural differentiation in the aquaculture industry in 2026, which may increase competitive pressure on local and single-species feed companies [16][17] - Leading companies in the animal health sector are actively seeking breakthroughs in pet healthcare and synthetic biology, which could enhance industry profitability. Companies such as Reap Bio, Keqian Bio, and others are recommended for attention [16][17] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.8 percentage points, with the agricultural products processing, livestock breeding, and planting sectors showing significant gains of 2.8%, 1.6%, and 1.1% respectively [23][24] - The report tracks key agricultural product prices, noting that corn prices increased by 1.2% to 2447 CNY/ton, while soybean meal prices rose by 8.3% to 3439 CNY/ton [17][25] Key Company Insights - Huazhong Holdings reported a significant increase in pig sales in February, with a 32.23% month-on-month increase and a 48.78% year-on-year increase, indicating strong sales performance despite price fluctuations [19] - Tianma Technology disclosed its eel output for February, with a total of 1163.92 tons, indicating a stable market for this product [20] - Zhongchong Co. announced the early redemption of its convertible bonds due to favorable stock performance, which may impact its capital structure [22]

证券代码：300761 证券简称：立华股份 公告编号：2026-009 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司 关于股东权益变动触及 1%整数倍的公告 公司实际控制人程立力、实际控制人之一致行动人林州昊鸣技术服务中心 （有限合伙）保证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 董事会 特别提示： 本次权益变动系因江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）实际控 制人及其一致行动人通过集中竞价和大宗交易方式减持股份，导致实际控制人及 其一致行动人合计持股比例累计变动触及 1%整数倍。具体公告如下： | 1.基本情况 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息披露义务人一 | 程立力 | | | | | 住所 | 常州市武进区延政西大道 | | | | | 权益变动时间 | 2026年2月6日-2026年3月9日 | | | | | 信息披露义务人二 | 林州昊鸣技术服务中心（有限合伙） | | | | | | | （曾用名：常州市天鸣农业技术服务中心（有限合伙）） | | | | 住所 | | 河南省安阳市林州市陵阳镇致远大道铂丰大厦 ...

证券代码：300761 证券简称：立华股份 公告编号：2026-008 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、2026 年 2 月销售情况 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）2026 年 2 月销售肉鸡（含 毛鸡、屠宰品及熟制品）4,092.87 万只，销售收入 11.57 亿元，毛鸡销售均价 12.25 元/公斤，环比变动分别为-15.55%、-10.24%、5.33%，同比变动分别为 24.55%、 50.46%、18.13%。 公司 2026 年 2 月销售肉猪 17.18 万头，销售收入 2.51 亿元，肉猪销售均价 12.08 元/公斤，环比变动分别为-11.08%、-17.43%、-7.93%，同比变动分别为-2.83%、 -23.01%、-20.00%。 二、原因说明 | 月份 | | | 肉鸡销量（万只） | 销售收入（亿元） | | 毛鸡销售均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ...