中国跟美国买大豆价格比巴西贵出不少，恢复进口或许只是筹码

Core Insights - Recent negotiations between China and the U.S. on trade issues have shown positive progress, particularly regarding soybean imports [1][3] - There is no official agreement yet on the specifics of resuming soybean imports, but indications suggest that China may restart purchases from the U.S. [3][4] Soybean Import Dynamics - China has historically been the largest importer of soybeans, with annual imports exceeding 100 million tons [3] - Due to tariffs imposed by the U.S., the cost of importing soybeans from the U.S. has significantly increased, leading to a reduction in imports, with a complete halt expected by September 2025 [4][7] - The U.S. soybean farmers have been adversely affected by the loss of the Chinese market, with a significant portion of their production reliant on exports [4][5] Current Import Statistics - From January to September 2023, China imported 86.18 million tons of soybeans, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, with 74% of these imports coming from Brazil [9] - The price of Brazilian soybeans has risen, with prices at the Port of Paranaguá increasing from 130.83 BRL (approximately $22.94) in February to 138.77 BRL (approximately $25.67) in October, marking a 6% increase [9][10] Price Comparison - In 2023, the cost of soybeans imported from Brazil was approximately 4,129.4 CNY per ton, while from the U.S. it was about 4,478.3 CNY per ton, indicating a price difference of around 8.5% [11] - Despite the price increase of Brazilian soybeans, they remain cheaper than U.S. soybeans due to lower transportation costs [11] Future Outlook - Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 170 million tons in 2025, which could meet China's demand [11] - Chinese importers have paused purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January, possibly to maintain leverage in negotiations with the U.S. [11]