金价大跌2932元，击鼓传花游戏结束，准确预言金价暴涨的人最新发文

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly 3000 RMB in just five days, is viewed as a minor fluctuation within a long-term bullish trend, according to expert Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital, who previously predicted a rise in gold prices to 2500 USD [1][3][8]. Market Reaction - On October 21, gold prices fell over 6%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013, with prices reaching as low as 3985.9 USD by October 27 [3][5]. - Major jewelry brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook, adjusted their gold prices downward, with reductions ranging from 25 to 34 RMB per gram [3]. - Social media buzzed with stories of young investors losing money as they followed trends in gold investment [3][12]. Causes of Price Drop - The immediate trigger for the price drop was a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions, with leaders from Germany, France, and the UK calling for an immediate halt to military actions in Ukraine [3][5]. - Positive developments in US-China trade talks also contributed to a decrease in market risk aversion [3][5]. Market Dynamics - Traders on Wall Street quickly moved to short gold, driven by the narrative that reduced geopolitical risks diminished the need for safe-haven assets [5]. - Analysts noted that the previous significant rise in gold prices had led to an overbought market, making a technical correction inevitable [6]. - The strengthening US dollar and rising US Treasury yields further diminished gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [6]. Central Bank Behavior - Despite the price drop, a survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months [7]. - Costa highlighted that the proportion of gold held by central banks has surpassed that of US Treasuries for the first time since 1996, suggesting significant room for price increases if gold holdings return to 75% levels seen in the 1970s [8]. Diverging Institutional Views - Some analysts predict that the recent decline marks the beginning of a downward trend, with potential prices dropping to 3500 USD by the end of next year [10]. - Conversely, Standard Chartered raised its 2026 gold price forecast by 16% to 4488 USD, citing strong retail and investment demand in Asia [10]. - UBS maintains a 12-month price outlook of 4000 USD, attributing this to high US fiscal deficits and an irreversible trend of de-dollarization [10]. Investor Sentiment - Ordinary investors are experiencing mixed outcomes, with some willing to endure short-term volatility for long-term gains, while others, particularly students, report significant losses from speculative investments [12][13]. - The gold recovery market is bustling, with increased demand for gold buybacks as many investors seek to liquidate their holdings [13]. Structural Changes in Gold Pricing - The perception of gold is shifting towards being a reserve asset free from sovereign credit risk, especially in extreme financial environments [14]. - The recent volatility in gold prices reflects deeper anxieties regarding the safety of dollar-denominated assets, as the US debt continues to rise significantly [18].