香港第一金：黄金多空屏息以待，鲍威尔一开口，市场往哪走？

Core Viewpoint and Market Prediction - Gold prices are at a critical juncture, positioned at a relative high for the year, determining whether it will break upwards or form a "double top" and decline [2] Short-term Outlook (1-3 Days) - The market is expected to show strong fluctuations but faces significant resistance [3] - Positive factors include ongoing geopolitical tensions providing safe-haven support for gold and persistent expectations of interest rate cuts from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which suppresses the strength of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Negative factors include substantial psychological and technical resistance near the $4000 mark, where any hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding prolonged high rates could sharply depress gold prices [4] Medium-term Outlook (1-4 Weeks) - The direction of gold prices remains undecided, contingent on key breakouts [5] - If gold can maintain above $3980 and break through the psychological barrier of $4000, the next target will be in the $4050 - $4080 range [5] - Conversely, if it fails to break through the $3960 - $3980 range and falls below the critical support of $3920, a short-term top may form, with a pullback target towards $3880 - $3850 [5] Precise Trading Recommendations - Aggressive Strategy: If gold prices strongly rise and stabilize above $3980, consider light long positions in the $3982 - $3985 range, targeting $4010 and $4040, with a stop loss below $3965 [6] - Conservative Strategy: Wait for gold to pull back to the $3925 - $3930 support area, and upon stabilization, consider long positions targeting $3955 and $3970, with a stop loss below $3915 [7] - Monitor for resistance at the $3975 - $3980 area for potential short positions if a reversal signal appears [8] Key Focus Areas - Core Risk Events: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference are crucial, as any hawkish comments could negatively impact gold, while dovish signals may support it [10] - U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data: The October employment report will be released, with strong data likely to weaken rate cut expectations and depress gold prices, while weak data could bolster such expectations [11] - Geopolitical Developments: Continuous monitoring of geopolitical news is essential, as any escalation or de-escalation can lead to significant fluctuations in gold prices [12] Technical Key Levels - Core Resistance Zone: $3980 - $4000, Core Support Zone: $3920 - $3930 [13] - Strong Support Zone: $3880 - $3850, Strong Resistance Zone: $4050 - $4080 [13] Trading Psychology and Discipline - Avoid chasing prices without clear breakout or breakdown signals [13] - Strictly set stop losses for every trade to mitigate risks [14] - Manage emotions and avoid revenge trading after losses [15] Summary - Gold is currently at a pivotal moment driven by events and technical factors, with strategies suggested for both short-term traders and medium to long-term investors [16][17][18]