富格林：套路虚假抨击曝光 联储决议指引金价走向

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of spot gold experienced significant volatility, reaching a low of $3,886.51, the lowest level since October 6, due to optimistic sentiments surrounding US-China trade negotiations, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - On October 28, spot gold fell to a three-week low, dropping 0.73% to close at $3,952.71 per ounce, influenced by improved trade outlooks [1][4] - The recent progress in US-China trade talks, including a framework agreement on soybean purchases and a pause on rare earth export controls, has led to a decrease in gold prices as investors preferred to sell gold [4][6] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-on-year, indicating that inflation remains above target levels, providing room for "moderate rate cuts" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October and another in December have been largely priced in, limiting direct support for gold prices [3] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding the pace of rate cuts and the potential impact of political pressure from President Trump on interest rates are key factors influencing market sentiment [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of conflict in Gaza, following Israel's military actions against Hamas, has added to geopolitical tensions, which traditionally support gold prices [5][6] - Despite the current pressures on gold prices, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and monetary policy uncertainties continue to support gold's attractiveness [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The recent drop in gold prices below $4,000 triggered technical sell-offs, with significant stop-loss orders being activated, leading to rapid declines [8] - If gold can reclaim and maintain the $4,000 level, it would signal a strong bullish trend; otherwise, continued trading below this level may indicate a short-term top has formed [8] - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the outcomes of the US-China summit for potential market direction [8]