美联储10月决议看点之声明变化和投票比例

Economic Assessment - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to adjust its initial statement to acknowledge the rebound in economic activity, potentially stating that "recent indicators show economic activity has been expanding at a robust pace" [1] - The committee may add language indicating that its assessment of economic conditions has been affected by data shortages due to the government shutdown [1] Employment and Inflation - Analysts from CityIndex suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain its existing views on slowing job growth and high inflation due to data scarcity caused by the government shutdown, although the weaker September inflation data may prompt slight adjustments in inflation language [1] Balance Sheet Reduction Plans - Strategists from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Mizuho Securities, TD Securities, and Wrightson expect the Federal Reserve to halt the reduction of its approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, while Barclays and Goldman Sachs analysts believe the end date will be later [1] Voting Dynamics - Barclays indicates potential internal divisions within the decision-making body, with member Milan likely advocating for a more significant rate cut, while other officials may prefer to maintain current interest rates [1] - Generali Investments predicts a "three-way split" in voting, with one dissenter supporting a larger 50 basis point cut and others possibly favoring no change [1] - Analyst Yohay Ela notes that if Milan can gain support from members Waller or Bowman, it could lead to a rise in stock and gold prices, while putting pressure on the dollar [1] - CityIndex suggests that Milan is likely to vote for a 50 basis point cut, but others may not follow suit; however, dissent for maintaining rates could signal a strong hawkish stance, though this risk is considered low [1]