孙立坚：当前国际货币体系面临“锚定缺失”困境

Core Insights - The current international monetary system is facing a "lack of anchor" dilemma, with traditional dollar hegemony exposed due to decoupling from Chinese production, leading to a shift towards technology as a new anchor [1][5][7] - The U.S. tech sector has become a focal point for capital inflow, and any issues within this sector could trigger systemic risks across the U.S. financial ecosystem and potentially lead to global repercussions [2][10] - The relationship between gold and silver indicates that rising gold prices often correlate with economic recession and deflationary conditions, suggesting a complex interplay between monetary factors and asset prices [3][4] Monetary System and Anchors - The concept of "anchor" in the monetary system is crucial for maintaining price stability, and its absence can lead to significant risks for assets like Bitcoin and RWA, exacerbating the Triffin dilemma [4][6] - The historical context of the 2000-2008 "dual low" prosperity period illustrates how global value chains absorbed dollar liquidity, temporarily avoiding the Triffin dilemma, which is now challenged by the decoupling from Chinese production [5][7] Risks and Innovations - The emergence of stablecoins and their innovative combinations aims to address the Triffin dilemma, but they also introduce new risks such as decoupling and bank run scenarios, particularly evident during downturns in the tech sector [11][12] - The financial ecosystem's reliance on technology as a new monetary anchor raises concerns about potential bubbles and the stability of the entire U.S. financial system if the tech sector experiences significant declines [10][11] Globalization and Economic Dynamics - The decoupling between the U.S. and China disrupts the previous global resource allocation mechanisms that supported dollar liquidity, leading to a shift towards virtual assets and a decline in real investment [7][9] - The U.S. has increasingly focused on innovation and financial services, sidelining manufacturing, which has implications for the middle class and overall economic stability [8][9]