富格林：欺诈追损安全冻结 贸易战缓和金价回调

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On October 28, spot gold prices fell to a three-week low of $3,886.51, primarily due to improved US-China trade negotiations, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 3.2% last week, with a peak of $4,381.29 per ounce earlier in the month, indicating a volatile market influenced by trade optimism [4] - The current core tension in the gold market lies between expectations of policy easing supporting gold prices and rising risk appetite reducing demand for safe-haven assets [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation above target levels, which provides room for "moderate rate cuts" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October have been fully priced in, with further cuts anticipated in December, although the direct support for gold prices may be limited [3] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding the pace of rate cuts could lead to market volatility, with some officials advocating for caution due to inflation concerns [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent escalations in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions in Gaza, have contributed to a 51% increase in gold prices this year, driven by geopolitical tensions [5] - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China has led to a preference for selling gold, further pressuring prices [4] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.23% to $60.05 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.77% to $63.87 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical uncertainties [8][11] - OPEC+ is discussing a moderate production increase plan for December, indicating a shift from years of production cuts to meet rising global energy demand [10]