智昇黄金原油分析：议息会议来袭 金价有望起飞

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent improvements in trade prospects for the world's two largest economies have led to a decrease in safe-haven sentiment, causing gold prices to retreat [1] - The U.S. Senate's 13th rejection of a temporary funding bill and ongoing government shutdown contribute to uncertainty, while geopolitical tensions in Israel and Gaza may support gold prices [1] - Analyst Chen Yu suggests optimism for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a rise in gold prices [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The latest API data shows a reduction of 4.02 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, exceeding the previous decrease of 2.981 million barrels, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - OPEC's strategy to regain market share may lead to increased production in December, coinciding with a seasonal decline in demand, raising concerns about oversupply [2] - Investors should monitor the impact of sanctions on Russian oil production, as continued sanctions could support oil prices, while a lack of sanctions may lead to weaker prices [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is expected to negatively impact the job market, increasing the likelihood of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 91.6% probability of a total cut of 50 basis points by December [3] - The dollar index remains strong, with technical indicators suggesting a potential for stability above the 62-day moving average [3] Group 4: Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown continues as the Senate rejects a temporary funding bill for the 13th time [5] - The ADP report indicates an average addition of 14,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 11 [5] - A key minerals and rare earth supply agreement was signed between Trump and Takamatsu [5] Group 5: Upcoming Events - Key data to be released includes the EIA crude oil inventory report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [6] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference following the rate decision [6]