供应瓶颈与弱需求博弈 沪锡高位震荡【10月29日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices lacking clear drivers, while macroeconomic concerns are heightened by a decline in U.S. consumer confidence, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main tin contract rose by 0.65%, closing at 286,720 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic tin smelting plants have largely resumed production, with operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi showing recovery by the end of the month, although overall industry operating levels remain low [1] - The tight supply of tin ore remains a critical constraint on smelting output, despite the opening of mining permits in Myanmar's Wa region, as actual recovery progress is slow [1] Group 2: Consumption Trends - The current tin consumption market is showing signs of a "weak recovery," with significant structural differentiation [1] - Traditional electronic consumption is underperforming, with weak orders, and the home appliance sector is generally under pressure, although white goods show slight support [1] - Emerging demands from sectors like new energy and AI servers provide long-term expectations, but their current contribution to overall demand is limited [1] Group 3: Inventory and Price Outlook - Social inventory continues to deplete, supporting high tin prices; however, elevated prices have significantly suppressed downstream replenishment intentions, with most companies maintaining only essential purchases [1] - The supply side remains tight, with slow recovery in the Wa region, leading to expectations of delayed significant output [2] - Despite the lack of strong demand rebound, structural support from AI and new energy sectors indicates some resilience, with refined tin inventories further depleting, suggesting that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations [2]