美联储缩表拐点临近，流动性变化对市场影响几何？| 市场罗盘

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce the end of its balance sheet reduction (QT) during the upcoming meeting, which has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4.0% for the first time in a year [2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Changes - Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from $4.31 trillion to nearly $9 trillion by April 2022, effectively doubling in size [4]. - The Fed initiated asset purchases in March 2020, announcing a $500 billion increase in Treasury securities [4]. - In December 2020, the Fed committed to purchasing at least $800 billion in Treasury securities and $400 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) monthly [5]. - The tapering of asset purchases began in July 2021, with a gradual reduction in the pace of buying [5]. - The balance sheet reduction started in June 2022, with monthly reductions of $30 billion in Treasuries and $17.5 billion in MBS, increasing to $60 billion and $35 billion respectively by September 2022 [5]. - By March 2025, the reduction pace for Treasuries is expected to slow to $5 billion per month [5]. Reasons for Ending QT - The need to avoid increased market financing costs and tightening liquidity in the overnight money market [7]. - Core inflation has been affected by tariffs and wages, and aggressive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation [7]. - To prevent long-term Treasury yields from rising due to a new round of fiscal expansion [7]. - The U.S. housing market is closely linked to MBS and long-term rates, necessitating a careful approach to avoid destabilizing the housing market [7]. Market Impact of Ending QT - Gold prices are likely to rise due to improved liquidity, alongside declining real interest rates and a weaker dollar [8]. - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to trend downward in the medium to long term, influenced by rate cut expectations [8]. - Overall, the end of QT could support equity valuations due to improved liquidity and lower yield expectations, although it may also lead to increased volatility if interpreted as a reactive policy change [8].