不好美国要捧杀了，新研究：中国正在成为全球科学领导者

Core Insights - The article discusses a recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which indicates that China is emerging as a global leader in scientific research, surpassing the United States in certain areas by 2030 [2][4]. Group 1: Research Methodology - The study utilized machine learning models to analyze 6 million research papers, focusing on authorship patterns, corresponding author identities, and institutional influence to assess the "team leader" metric [2][4]. - Researchers defined leadership roles through a three-step process, categorizing scientists into three roles: leaders, direct supporters, and indirect supporters, based on their contributions to research [7][8]. - A scoring system was developed to quantify leadership, assigning scores based on various metrics such as citation counts, publication volume, and institutional ranking [10][11]. Group 2: Key Findings - As of 2023, the proportion of Chinese leaders in Sino-American collaborations has risen to 45%, with predictions indicating that this will equalize with the U.S. by 2027-2028 [14]. - The study predicts that by 2030, China will achieve parity with the U.S. in leadership positions in strategic fields such as AI, semiconductors, energy, and materials science [2][14]. - The research highlights a long-term challenge for China, as it may take until 2087 for China to achieve equal leadership premium compared to the U.S., indicating a disparity in "per capita leadership conversion" [14]. Group 3: Contextual Reactions - The findings have sparked significant discussion in the West, with some commentators expressing concern over the implications for the future of American scientific leadership [16][18]. - The article references recent funding issues faced by prominent scientists in the U.S., suggesting that bureaucratic challenges may hinder innovation and contribute to the shifting landscape of global scientific leadership [18]. Group 4: Author Backgrounds - The study includes contributions from researchers affiliated with Wuhan University and the University of Chicago, indicating a collaborative effort between Chinese and American institutions [19][20][22]. - The authors' research backgrounds span various fields, including information management, regional economic development, and collective knowledge systems, reflecting a diverse expertise in the study [21][22][25].