ATFX汇评：美联储10月决议来袭，预期降息25基点，美指出现筑底迹象

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate range to 3.85%-4% during the October meeting, influenced by poor employment data [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 99.3%, indicating strong consensus among investors [4]. - The decision comes after a significant drop in non-farm employment numbers, with the lowest figure reaching negative 13,000 and the latest at only 22,000 [1]. Group 2: Powell's Press Conference - Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference will focus on two main issues: the continuation of the rate cut policy and the impact of high tariffs on inflation [2]. - Powell's perspective on whether high tariffs will have a temporary or lasting effect on prices will be crucial for the future of the Fed's rate cut strategy [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The dollar index may experience a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, where the anticipated rate cut does not lead to a significant decline in the dollar [4]. - Technically, the dollar index shows signs of a potential trend reversal, having broken through previous bearish trend lines, with key resistance levels at 100 and 100.23 [7].