美出手制裁顶欧盟半年！特朗普能源战直击俄罗斯命脉，印度被牵连

Core Viewpoint - The recent sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Russian oil companies aim to cut off funding for Russia's military actions, leading to significant global oil price increases and supply chain disruptions, particularly affecting India and the EU [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices and Supply - Following the announcement of sanctions, global oil prices surged by 6% within hours, indicating immediate market reactions to geopolitical events [3][5]. - Russia has suspended oil supplies to India's largest refinery, highlighting the immediate consequences of the sanctions on key oil-importing nations [5][6]. Group 2: India's Oil Dependency - In July 2024, India was set to import 2.07 million barrels of oil per day from Russia, accounting for 44% of its total imports, but this figure dropped to the lowest level since May 2022 following the sanctions, with a 38% month-on-month decrease [6][7]. - Indian Prime Minister Modi's response to the sanctions reflects the delicate balance India must maintain between adhering to U.S. demands and protecting its economic interests in accessing cheaper Russian oil [7][9]. Group 3: EU's Energy Dilemma - Despite publicly supporting sanctions against Russia, the EU remains the largest buyer of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), purchasing half of Russia's total LNG exports, which raises questions about the effectiveness of their sanctions [9][10]. - The EU's continued energy purchases from Russia, even after implementing sanctions, suggest a significant reliance on Russian energy that complicates their geopolitical stance [10][12]. Group 4: Russia's Countermeasures - Russia's fossil fuel export revenues fell by 4% last month, marking the lowest since the onset of the conflict, with potential losses of $7.4 billion monthly if it loses key customers like China and India [10][11]. - To mitigate the impact of sanctions, Russia has developed a "shadow fleet" of nearly 600 aging oil tankers to circumvent Western restrictions, which now handles 65% of its daily oil exports [11][13]. Group 5: U.S. Strategic Gains - The U.S. has significantly increased its LNG exports to the EU, capturing over 55% of the market share in 2023, which is projected to remain high in 2024, indicating a strategic economic advantage gained from the sanctions [15][17]. - The sanctions not only aim to pressure Russia but also serve U.S. interests by potentially monopolizing the European energy market and reinforcing U.S. economic dominance [17][18]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The effectiveness of the sanctions will depend on the commitment of countries like India to reduce Russian oil imports and the EU's ability to enforce its sanctions without exacerbating its own energy crisis [19][20]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics surrounding energy trade suggest that the situation will remain complex and fluid, with significant implications for global energy markets [21][22].