美元降息周期下的大类资产表现全景分析

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have systemic impacts on global asset pricing through liquidity expansion, interest rate transmission, and cross-border capital flows [1] - The report categorizes interest rate cut cycles into preventive cuts (to address economic slowdown risks) and rescue cuts (to respond to crises or recessions), highlighting the differences in market expectations and asset reactions [1] Group 2 - Equity assets respond to dollar rate cuts based on the nature of the cycle and economic fundamentals, showing a "liquidity first, earnings verification" transmission path with significant differentiation across market sectors [2] - In developed markets, U.S. stocks, particularly tech stocks, lead the rebound during preventive cut cycles, while during rescue cut cycles, markets experience phases of panic decline, liquidity recovery, and earnings recovery [3][4] - Emerging market stocks, particularly Chinese assets, show a pattern of "external catalysis, internal determination," with U.S. rate cuts alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan and attracting foreign capital [5][6] Group 3 - Fixed income assets are core beneficiaries of dollar rate cut cycles, with performance differences arising from interest rate sensitivity, credit risk, and market liquidity [8] - U.S. Treasury yields exhibit a "short-end follows policy, long-end reflects expectations" characteristic, with short-term yields closely tracking policy rates during cut cycles [9] - Emerging market bonds benefit from U.S. monetary easing and yield spread advantages, with significant inflows into Chinese bonds during the current cycle [10] Group 4 - Commodity responses to dollar rate cuts show significant differentiation, with precious metals benefiting from liquidity and safe-haven demand, while industrial metals depend on economic cycles and supply-demand dynamics [13] - Gold is identified as a "certainty winner" during rate cut cycles, with its price driven by real interest rates, the dollar index, and safe-haven demand [14] - Energy prices are indirectly influenced by rate cuts, primarily driven by supply-demand relationships, with oil prices fluctuating based on economic expectations [15] Group 5 - The dollar's exchange rate is reshaped by rate cuts, with the dollar index's performance influenced by the nature of the cuts and relative economic strength [16] - Major developed currencies like the euro and yen are affected by their respective central bank policies, while emerging market currencies, particularly the yuan, show resilience due to domestic economic policies [18] Group 6 - Alternative assets exhibit varied performance during rate cut cycles, reflecting their hybrid equity-debt characteristics and sensitivity to liquidity [19] - REITs benefit from lower financing costs and attractive capitalization rates relative to bond yields during rate cut cycles, showing strong performance in recovery phases [20] - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are highly volatile and sensitive to liquidity conditions, with significant price movements observed during periods of monetary easing [21] Group 7 - The core规律 of asset performance indicates that the type of rate cut cycle determines the leading assets, with preventive cuts favoring risk assets and rescue cuts initially benefiting safe-haven assets [22] - The current cycle in 2025 is characterized as preventive easing, with a focus on technology stocks and Chinese assets, while traditional asset performance patterns may be disrupted by global economic differentiation [23][24]