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三诺生物(300298):三季度收入进一步提速 出海砥砺前行

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.453 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.52%, which aligns with expectations [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 211 million yuan, a decline of 17.36% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 180 million yuan, down 22.13% year-on-year, falling short of expectations due to a one-time payment of 19 million USD related to patent licensing [1][2] Revenue Trends - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with a trend of increasing revenue growth observed since the beginning of 2025 [2] - Both traditional and Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) businesses experienced double-digit growth year-on-year, with steady revenue growth from subsidiaries PTS and Trividia [2] - The company anticipates positive contributions to performance from its second-generation CGM products and expansion into Southeast Asia and Europe [2] Patent and Legal Developments - Trividia signed a cross-licensing and settlement agreement with Roche on October 2, resulting in a net payment of 19 million USD, which impacted Q3 net profit [2] - Excluding this one-time impact, the net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 would have been 1.05 billion yuan, reflecting an 82% year-on-year increase, while the net profit for the first three quarters would show a 12% year-on-year growth [2] - The company plans to appeal a temporary injunction related to iCan CGM patents in Europe and will explore strategies for the second-generation products' market entry [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to litigation impacts, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 25.8% and 12.5% to 298 million yuan and 439 million yuan, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.9 times for 2025 and 24.4 times for 2026 [3] - Despite the profit forecast adjustments, the company maintains a leading position in blood glucose monitoring, with a target price reduction of 7% to 26 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current stock price [3]