美国制裁俄油双巨头！印度信实拟停购，十年百亿合同悬了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil have led to Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil refiner, halting all purchases of Russian crude oil, marking a significant shift in its procurement strategy [1][3][29]. Group 1: Reliance Industries' Oil Procurement - Reliance Industries had significantly increased its dependence on Russian oil, purchasing approximately 629,590 barrels per day from Rosneft and Lukoil as of September 2025, which accounted for nearly half of India's total crude oil imports that month [3][5]. - In September 2024, Reliance signed a ten-year contract with Rosneft to purchase crude oil worth $12 to $13 billion annually, translating to about 500,000 barrels per day [9][12]. - The sudden halt in Russian oil procurement poses a dilemma for Reliance, as Russian oil constitutes over half of its refinery feedstock, and stopping these purchases could severely impact its profit margins [12][18]. Group 2: Market and Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that if Reliance is forced to abandon Russian oil, the financial impact may be manageable, as Russian oil profits represent only about 2.1% of the projected total EBITDA for the fiscal year 2027 [16][18]. - The price difference between Russian Urals crude and similar Middle Eastern crude has narrowed, reducing the incentive for Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil, which previously offered a discount of $8 to $10 per barrel, now reduced to $5 to $6 [20][22]. - The Indian government and state-owned refiners are also reducing their Russian oil purchases, indicating a broader trend among Indian refiners to comply with U.S. sanctions and improve trade relations with the U.S. [22][24]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. has previously pressured India to limit its purchases of Russian oil, and the current shift in procurement strategy may be an attempt by India to strengthen its trade relationship with the U.S. [20][22]. - The decision to halt Russian oil imports could potentially clear obstacles in U.S.-India trade negotiations, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [24][26]. - The market reaction to Reliance's decision has been relatively muted, with its stock price only slightly declining by 1.2% since the announcement of the sanctions, indicating investor confidence in Reliance's diversified business model [28][29].