Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential early end to its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, with Chairman Powell indicating that the reduction of the balance sheet may stop when reserves are slightly above what is deemed sufficient [1][2] - Analysts suggest a clear policy roadmap: interest rate cuts are currently happening, followed by the cessation of QT, and potentially a new round of quantitative easing (QE) starting in early 2026 [1][2] Economic Pressures - The U.S. job market is showing signs of distress, with companies announcing 946,426 layoffs this year, a 55% increase compared to the same period in 2024, marking the highest level since 2020 [2] - The housing market is under significant pressure, with searches for "mortgage assistance" reaching their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, and current mortgage rates at approximately 6.3%, more than double the 3% rates locked in by many homeowners during 2020-2021 [2] Balance Sheet Status - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains far from normal levels, currently at $6.6 trillion, down only $2.2 trillion since the start of QT in June 2022, which is only a 27% reduction from pre-pandemic levels of about $4 trillion [3][6] - Powell's comments suggest a new "normal" for the balance sheet, which is 60% higher than pre-pandemic levels, indicating a shift in expectations for future monetary policy [6] QE Implications - The potential restart of QE from a high balance sheet level of $6.6 trillion, rather than a more normalized $4 trillion, could lead to double-digit inflation, as the system is still saturated with liquidity from the pandemic [7] - Investors may need to prepare for high inflation and new asset price volatility as the Fed's monetary expansion resumes [7]
印钞机引擎预热：美联储放弃紧缩，为下一场资产泡沫铺路？
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-29 13:02