有色60ETF大涨4.78%、矿业ETF大涨4.48%点评

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with significant increases in major indices, driven by strong performance in the metals sector and positive market sentiment ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][6]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, stabilizing above 4000 points; the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The North Star 50 Index saw a remarkable rise of 8.41%. The total market turnover reached 2.29 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. Metals Sector - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159881) closed up by 4.78%, while the Mining ETF (561330) rose by 4.48% [2][4]. - The nonferrous metals sector saw a collective surge, with copper and zinc leading the gains. The main copper futures contract in London broke through the $11,000/ton mark and reached an intraday high of $11,130/ton, surpassing the previous historical high of $11,104.5/ton set in May of last year, marking a year-to-date increase of nearly 25% [6]. - London aluminum prices also rose, breaking a nearly three-year record, reaching an intraday high of $2,909.9/ton, with a year-to-date increase of over 13% [6]. Economic Factors - The rebound in spot gold prices followed a drop to $3,886.2/ounce, with market participants awaiting the FOMC meeting and anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut, which could benefit precious metals [6]. - Recent trade discussions between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur have eased trade concerns, boosting market risk appetite and benefiting industrial metals like copper and aluminum [6]. Future Outlook - The copper supply-demand situation remains tight, with expectations for price increases in a rate-cutting cycle. Recent disruptions in overseas copper mines, including a forecasted production shortfall from Antofagasta in Chile, have led to downward adjustments in production guidance for several major projects, cumulatively reducing output by nearly 500,000 tons [7]. - The ongoing low treatment charge (TC) prices for copper mines and the tightening of smelting capacity in China are expected to support copper prices in the medium term [7]. - For gold, the core factors supporting price increases include the onset of a Fed rate-cutting cycle, challenges to the dollar's credit system, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on resource stocks, particularly the Mining ETF (561330) and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159881), which have significant exposure to gold, copper, and rare metals, collectively accounting for over 50% of their industry distribution [10].