“美联储传声筒”：本周降息或成定局，小心鲍威尔的“万能借口”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's anticipated 25 basis point rate cut is just the beginning, with the real challenge being the subsequent decisions due to the government shutdown disrupting key economic data [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - Concerns over a potential sharp cooling in the job market have overshadowed inflation worries, with Fed officials indicating that their focus has not significantly changed since September [1] - The market's expectations for rate cuts are deeply entrenched, shifting attention to the final meeting of the year in December, where the debate may set the stage for the Fed to hold rates steady rather than cut again [1] - A slight majority of officials in September believed that two more rate cuts might be necessary this year, providing the market with reasons to believe in the possibility of a December cut, although a significant number of officials feel further cuts may not be appropriate [1] Group 2: Data Disruption and Its Implications - The lack of timely economic reports, particularly new labor market indicators, has left officials without the necessary information to bridge internal divisions [1] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the risk of missing critical data, which could complicate future decision-making [1] - Former senior Fed advisor William English noted that the absence of comprehensive data since September likely means officials remain in their previous stance, with increased uncertainty surrounding it [1] Group 3: Potential Policy Actions - Fed Governor Mylan may cast a dissenting vote this week in favor of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, but without clear evidence of significant job market deterioration, gaining committee support for such a move may be challenging [2] - Officials may also discuss when to end the reduction of the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet, as signs indicate that overnight loan rates are approaching the upper limit of the Fed's target federal funds rate range of 4% to 4.25% [2]