Core Viewpoint - The urgency of China's population trends is highlighted, with a warning that if current paths continue, India's population could reach three times that of China in 40 years, impacting long-term national competitiveness [2][12]. Population Trends - China's total population is projected to be 1.40828 billion by the end of 2024, experiencing continuous negative growth, while the birth rate is expected to rebound to 9.54 million, an increase of 520,000, with a birth rate of 6.77‰ [4]. - In contrast, India's population is expected to exceed 1.464 billion by 2025, with over 11.4 million newborns in the first half of 2024 and an annual total projected to exceed 25 million [4]. Birth Rate and Economic Impact - The number of newborns in China may halve within seven years, dropping from 9.56 million in 2022 to around 4.5 million by 2030, primarily due to a shrinking base of women of childbearing age [6]. - A model indicates that for every 1‰ decrease in birth rate, GDP growth could decline by 0.5%, emphasizing the need for a shift from population control to incentives for childbirth [8]. Strategic Recommendations - To counteract declining birth rates, China could adopt a subsidy model similar to Israel, which includes halving housing loans and providing free education until age 18 [14]. - The Chinese government has initiated a universal child-rearing subsidy program, effective from January 1, 2025, providing 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old [16][17]. Population Density Concerns - By 2064, China's population density may drop below that of Europe, with projections showing a decrease to 11 billion and a density of 85 people per square kilometer, compared to Europe's 73 [19]. - India's population density is projected to reach 464 people per square kilometer, nearing 500, which poses challenges for resource allocation and development [21]. Policy and Implementation - China is enhancing its support for childbirth, with policies that include extending maternity leave and comprehensive health insurance for assisted reproduction [23]. - Local initiatives, such as in Guangdong, have seen significant birth rates, with a continuous increase in economic vitality attracting graduates [25]. Conclusion - The analysis emphasizes the importance of population dynamics for national strategy, with China having the potential to reverse current trends through effective policy implementation and support systems [27].
人口学家梁建章警告：若不尽早干预，40年后印度人口将是中国3倍
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-29 14:12