太阳纸业(002078)：新产能建设稳步推进 盈利能力有望稳步修复

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.50 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 15.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year; the expense ratio was 5.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, leading to a net profit margin of 8.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 14.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 3.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the expense ratio was 5.6%, remaining stable year-on-year and decreasing by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the net profit margin was 7.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and a decrease of 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Production Capacity Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its new capacity layout, with the second phase of the special paper project at the Shandong base expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026, alongside ongoing projects for 600,000 tons of bleached chemical pulp and high-end packaging paper [2] - At the Guangxi base, the first phase of the Nanning park has seen the high-end packaging paper production line PM11 start operations in August 2025, with PM12 entering debugging in October 2025; the second phase includes the PM9 special paper line and other pulp production lines that began operations in September 2025 [2] - In the household paper segment, four production lines were initiated at the Nanning park in early 2025, with PM16 and PM17 entering debugging in October 2025, and PM18 and PM19 expected to enter debugging in November 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated forestry and paper-making advantages, with collaborative development across its three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, leading to gradual capacity release and diversified product structure [2] - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.34 billion yuan, 3.84 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [2]