深跌之后黄金重返4000美元

Core Viewpoint - Recent sharp decline in spot gold prices, dropping nearly $500 from a historical high of over $4300 per ounce, attributed to multiple short-term factors including reduced safe-haven demand and a strengthening dollar [1][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - On October 28, spot gold fell below $3900 per ounce, reaching a low of $3886.199, but rebounded to $4030 per ounce by October 29, marking a nearly 2% increase [3] - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by easing short-term risk sentiment and liquidity pressures in the silver market, leading to profit-taking among investors [3][4] - Gold prices have seen a cumulative decline of over 10% since peaking at $4400 on October 20 [7] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Easing trade tensions between major economies, particularly between China and the U.S., have led to a decrease in global safe-haven demand, pressuring gold prices [4][6] - Increased technical selling due to profit-taking after a rapid rise in gold prices from around $3600 to nearly $4400 per ounce [4] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have been fully priced in, affecting investor sentiment towards gold [4][7] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Significant withdrawals from gold and silver ETFs, with SPDR reducing holdings by 19.74 tons and SLV by 428.99 tons in recent days [5] - Central banks, including the Philippines, are reconsidering their gold holdings, with discussions on whether to sell gold as prices decline [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, long-term factors such as ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold prices [7][8] - HSBC forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise into the next year, potentially reaching a peak in the first half of 2026 [8]