ExxonMobil(US:XOM) ZACKS·2025-10-29 15:35Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 31, 2025, before the market opens [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is $1.78 per share, reflecting a 7.3% decline year-over-year, while revenues are projected at $86.8 billion, indicating a 3.6% decrease from the previous year [1][6] - XOM has consistently beaten consensus earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.87% [2] Earnings Expectations - The current Earnings ESP for XOM is -0.17%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [3] - Recent SEC filings indicate a potential sequential increase in earnings by $200 million due to changes in natural gas prices, while oil price fluctuations could impact earnings by a range of a $100 million loss to a $300 million gain [5][6] Commodity Price Analysis - Average WTI spot prices for July, August, and September were $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel, respectively, showing a healthier pricing environment compared to the previous quarter [7] - The EIA projects a decline in WTI spot average prices to $65 per barrel in 2025 and $48.50 per barrel in 2026, which may negatively affect XOM's earnings as it derives most of its income from upstream operations [16] Business Performance - XOM's stock has increased by 2.2% over the past year, underperforming compared to the industry growth of 8.7% and BP's 26.1% increase [9] - The company is perceived as relatively overvalued, with a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.38, compared to the industry average of 4.60 [12] Industry Context - Other major energy players like Chevron (CVX) and BP are also set to report their third-quarter earnings on the same day, with CVX having an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [17] - BP has an Earnings ESP of -0.09% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating mixed performance expectations across the sector [18]