中方跟美国买大豆价格比巴西贵出不少，恢复进口或许只是砝码

Core Insights - The resumption of U.S. soybean imports by China is a strategic move in the context of U.S.-China trade negotiations, with soybean prices playing a crucial role in the discussions [1][11]. Group 1: Import Dynamics - China is the world's largest soybean importer, with annual imports exceeding 100 million tons and a dependency rate of over 80% [3]. - In 2025, China's soybean imports from the U.S. dropped to zero for the first time since 2018, significantly impacting U.S. soybean farmers who rely heavily on exports to China [5]. - In 2023, China imported 6,993,000 tons of soybeans from Brazil and 2,348,000 tons from the U.S., with Brazilian soybeans priced at approximately 4,129.37 RMB per ton compared to 4,478.28 RMB per ton for U.S. soybeans, indicating a price difference of about 8.5% [6][9]. Group 2: Price Trends and Market Shifts - Following the halt of U.S. soybean imports, China shifted its focus to Brazilian soybeans, importing 6,370,000 tons from Brazil in the first nine months of 2025, which accounted for 74% of total imports [7]. - Brazilian soybean prices have increased due to domestic inflation and a stronger Brazilian real, with prices rising from approximately 22.94 USD per 60 kg bag in February 2025 to 25.67 USD by October 2025 [9]. - Despite the price increase, the cost of Brazilian soybeans remains lower than that of U.S. soybeans, with the landed price for Brazilian soybeans at about 3,162 RMB per ton compared to 3,300 RMB per ton for U.S. soybeans in early 2025 [9][11]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - China's adjustments in the soybean supply chain are part of a systematic strategy to diversify imports and reduce reliance on U.S. soybeans, including increasing domestic soybean production and exploring new supply markets [13][15]. - In 2024, China's soybean imports reached 10,503,000 tons, with over 70% coming from Brazil, while the share from the U.S. continued to decline [13]. - The increase in tariffs on U.S. soybeans to 34% in 2025 and the temporary implementation of zero imports highlight the strategic importance of soybeans in U.S.-China economic relations [15].