黄金暴跌是精准手术？切除杠杆毒瘤后，三大长期逻辑让金价更稳

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping from $4144 to $4044 within six hours, resulted in a loss of $20 billion in long positions, highlighting the hidden risks in the market despite previous bullish trends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Retail investors panicked and sold their gold holdings during the price drop, fearing further declines, while institutional investors like BlackRock capitalized on the situation, with their gold ETF seeing a net inflow of $1.87 billion, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020 [3][5]. - Prior to the crash, gold had risen approximately 8% over six weeks, leading to a crowded market where 43% of investors favored going long on gold, indicating a lack of attention to underlying investment discipline [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Context - The market was optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, but comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about cautious monetary policy triggered a correction, leading to a cascade of leveraged positions being liquidated [7][9]. - The liquidity crisis affected not only gold but also Bitcoin, with $1.189 billion in leveraged positions liquidated on the same day [9][10]. Group 3: Central Bank and Industry Actions - Central banks have been actively purchasing gold for 11 consecutive months, acquiring 289 tons in Q1 2025, with most purchases made at prices between $3800 and $4000, coinciding with the recent price drop [12][14]. - Major gold mining companies, such as Barrick Gold, have initiated stock buybacks, indicating confidence in the long-term value of gold despite short-term volatility [17]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a shift towards a more diversified global energy settlement system, with oil-producing countries beginning to use gold for transactions [10][12]. - The anticipated demand for gold is expected to rise, with global imports projected to exceed 1200 tons in 2025, driven by real demand rather than speculative bubbles [14][16].