【环球财经】美联储主席鲍威尔：经济数据缺失可能构成12月暂停利率调整的理由

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, but the government shutdown may temporarily hinder economic activity. The labor market is gradually cooling, with rising downside risks to employment, yet initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a slow decline rather than a rapid downturn [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Powell expects the economic growth rate for the year to be around 1.6%, lower than the previous year. He emphasizes that there has been no significant deterioration across various economic sectors [2]. - The Fed's monetary policy remains moderately restrictive, with inflation slightly above target levels. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is projected to be around 2.3% to 2.4%, while inflation excluding tariffs is only 0.5% to 0.6% above the 2% target [1][3]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, citing recent pressures in the money market that necessitate immediate adjustments. Powell notes that the benefits of continuing quantitative tightening (QT) are diminishing, and the Fed will maintain stability in the short term [3]. - Powell acknowledges that there is no zero-risk policy path, and the balance of risks has shifted. The recent rate cuts are steps toward a more neutral policy stance, but the decision for further rate adjustments in December remains uncertain due to data shortages caused by the government shutdown [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's statements, the dollar index rose by 0.60%, while the two-year Treasury yield surged to 3.59%. The stock market experienced a downturn as traders adjusted their expectations for a December rate cut, now estimated at 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that Powell's comments reflect internal tensions within the Fed regarding further rate cuts, especially with inflation remaining high. This has led to a temporary market reaction, as investors had anticipated more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy [5][6].