IBM Raises Its FCF Outlook for 2025 - IBM Stock Could be Undervalued

Core Insights - IBM reported its highest adjusted free cash flow (FCF) margin in history at 15% for the year-to-date ending September 30 [1] - The company raised its full-year 2025 adjusted FCF outlook to $14 billion, up from $13.5 billion projected in Q2 [3] - IBM stock closed at $313.09, reflecting a 13.5% increase from a recent low of $275.97 [1] Financial Performance - Year-to-date adjusted FCF was $7.181 billion, indicating an expected $6.189 billion for Q4, slightly above last year's Q4 adjusted FCF of $6.163 billion [3] - Analysts project a full-year 20.9% FCF margin for 2025 based on expected revenue of $67.02 billion [4] - For 2026, assuming a 21% adjusted FCF margin and $70 billion in revenue, the estimated FCF could rise to $14.7 billion [4] Stock Valuation - The trailing 12-month adjusted FCF yield is 4.56%, suggesting a potential market cap increase to $322.4 billion in 2026 [5] - This implies a target stock price of $345.00, representing over a 10% increase from the current price [5] - Analysts have an average price target of $313.09, with some estimates as high as $345.69 [5] Conclusion - IBM stock appears undervalued based on its strong FCF performance and analysts' target prices [6]